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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: 'Stop Sanders' Democrats Are Agonizing Over His Momentum [View all]Gothmog
(145,046 posts)309. Nate Silver- Sanders Can Win, But He Isn't Polling Like A Favorite
Nate thinks that it is possible for sander to win the nomination but this is not likely. sanders is not going to be the nominee of the party. sanders thinks that getting 30% of the primary vote is sufficient which means taking the fight to the contested convention. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/
Historically, though, candidates who are polling at only about 20 percent nationally despite the near-universal name recognition that Sanders enjoys dont have a great track record. From our research on the history of past primary polls, I found 15 candidates from past nomination processes who, like Sanders, (i) polled at an average of between 15 percent and 25 percent4 in national polls in the first six months of the year before the Iowa caucuses5 and (ii) who had high or very high name recognition.6.....
Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 arent good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a The Party Decides standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.
In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didnt have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.
At times, Sanderss strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasnt sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantics Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. Thats a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.
Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 arent good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a The Party Decides standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.
In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didnt have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.
At times, Sanderss strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasnt sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantics Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. Thats a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.
sanders will not be the nominee if sanders only gets 30% of the primary vote. There are too many real democrats who have long memories and who will not forgive or forget. If this gets to a floor fight, the delegates for the other candidates will not support sanders and the super delegates will get to break any deadlocks after the first ballot.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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We will lose if he is in the general. I still don't think he wins a primary myself.
Demsrule86
Apr 2019
#4
The only way we POSSIBLY lose in 2020 is if Bernie is NOT in the general...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#33
I don't think he's our only chance, but everybody always fears the socialist firebrand
marylandblue
Apr 2019
#56
Of course, I didn't say Bernie was our "ONLY chance"... hence, I used the word "POSSIBLY."
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#65
I do not believe he can won a general... I wish it was so. He has my vote in a general but it won't
Demsrule86
Apr 2019
#67
Yes, we've had this discussion before & I respect your opinion Demsrule...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#72
If it ever came down to Bernie and TRump the orange one will win by a landslide
njhoneybadger
Apr 2019
#82
Bernie's lead is always within the margin of error and the same polls show Biden
Skya Rhen
Apr 2019
#152
Absolutely! Baier was told what to ask! When Biden announces...think fux will have him on?
Thekaspervote
Apr 2019
#298
The road to unity that I'm talkin about is a PROCESS...as more people jump on the "Bernie Bandwagon"
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#177
I've certainly seen no evidence of that... I'm actually pretty confident in assuming that
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#71
He won't...the moderate Independents won't vote for him. Sure we will but it will not be enough.
Demsrule86
Apr 2019
#78
I saw one of those Internet polls...from a different poster confused the posts sorry.
Demsrule86
Apr 2019
#272
They will not consider a socialist...yes I know the difference but you can't
Demsrule86
Apr 2019
#203
"Sanders will not appeal to the rustbelt...if he is the general, candidate we lose"
LiberalLovinLug
Apr 2019
#210
I truly believe Michelle Obama is the ONLY ONE who can "do something about it."
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#106
We are almost a year away from Iowa. There is time. I hear it will be next week after Easter
Demsrule86
Apr 2019
#171
Yes, Bernie is leading the pack of declared candidates... why hasn't he dropped out already?!
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#37
It would stand to reason that the party would rally behind such a strong candidate rather then, if
CentralMass
Apr 2019
#101
You'd think!! It says a lot and, perhaps, ironically, splains why Bernie is SO damn popular
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#108
Have you found video of any significant number of African Americans attending a sanders event yet?
Gothmog
Apr 2019
#189
Bernie Sanders Is Beating Kamala Harris 2-1 Among Black Democratic Primary Voters New Poll Finds
LiberalLovinLug
Apr 2019
#196
sanders cannot get the nomination without the support of African American voters
Gothmog
Apr 2019
#261
It seems that sanders has written off getting African American vote in South Carolina
Gothmog
Apr 2019
#280
Yeah, but "Two-time President Obama's VP, Biden found to be MOST popular with African Americans"
namahage
Apr 2019
#294
"...or certainly that he stays in so long that he damages the actual winner."
lapucelle
Apr 2019
#305
I only read what you posted, what is there to dispute? I am totally on board for strategic
seaglass
Apr 2019
#41
David Brock is one of the leaders of the Circular Firing Squad contingent.
thesquanderer
Apr 2019
#145
I'm sure Elizabeth wouldn't be safe from Brock either. And agree completely with
Nanjeanne
Apr 2019
#160
If a candidate "could end up winning this thing," how about trying NOT to organize a group to damage
LiberalLovinLug
Apr 2019
#193
Maybe they should join him instead of trying to stop him. People like what he has to say and
Autumn
Apr 2019
#2
Me too, they started arriving early in December 2015. Never signed up for them.
George II
Apr 2019
#249
Of course not, it's BERNIE we're talkin' about. Now, if it was any OTHER candidate...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#89
Of course this new "Bernie Standard" wouldnt apply to any other candidate, now would it?!
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#176
Bernie has the highest unfavorables of any candidate running on the Dem ticket. Bloomberg would
seaglass
Apr 2019
#13
LOL... ain't that the truth!! The only one who could MAYBE stop Bernie is...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#59
you misread what they said, they are talking about the general, not the Democratic nomination
Celerity
Apr 2019
#293
I don't know, I assume you mean Hillary? It's comparing apples to oranges. No one knew Bernie back
seaglass
Apr 2019
#175
Nah, Bernie has been trending highest unfavorables since he got in the race. I'm clear on
seaglass
Apr 2019
#259
High unfavorables didn't stop us last time. Why should we care now? nt
Decoy of Fenris
Apr 2019
#262
Bloomberg is on record wanting to cut social security and Medicare and raise the retirement age
Hassin Bin Sober
Apr 2019
#209
It won't play in the Democratic primaries at all. It also appears that he ruled a run out when
seaglass
Apr 2019
#212
Are you saying that Bernie crossed the Rubicon? I never heard any word on the street
Autumn
Apr 2019
#284
Anecdotal, but almost all the Bernie supporters I know that swapped Trump were Rs anyways.
Decoy of Fenris
Apr 2019
#182
"the need for pragmatism at times and the give and take of living in a complex society"
LiberalLovinLug
Apr 2019
#205
I'd probably agree if the head to head polling vs Trump showed him struggling.
Kentonio
Apr 2019
#311
BINGO!!! Bernie will not let that happen again... he'll be relentless out on the campaign trail...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#83
Isn't it great to have a candidate who not only knows what it takes to win...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#132
It's a nice argument on paper but the reality of it us tha the orange anus occupies the white house.
CentralMass
Apr 2019
#111
Agonizing? Of course Jonathan Martin would like to think so. He's quite the Bernie cheerleader
ehrnst
Apr 2019
#12
You would need to invent it first. Treating him like any other career politician isn't "hatred."
ehrnst
Apr 2019
#49
Me too...it's a sign we're winning!! I'd be a lot more worried if they were IGNORING Bernie!!
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#98
So if people disagree with Bernie, it's because they're "envious" and not because they have a point?
ehrnst
Apr 2019
#107
LOL, you know darn well that's NOT what I said... not even CLOSE!! Good try though!!
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#119
I must've struck a nerve... just show me where I actually said what's stated in your false argument
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#174
I think I see the problem ehrnst... you did quote me correctly, so, yes, thanks for that...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Apr 2019
#270
I understand that He "annointed" Democratic policies and "brought them to the masses."
ehrnst
Apr 2019
#110
I find it disturbing when any critique or dissent that any other career politician would
ehrnst
Apr 2019
#48
He can't even get AA and POC to attend a rally at a BLACK church in a MAJORITY BLACK city.
NurseJackie
Apr 2019
#57
The fact that you, in particular, are posting around here with Sanders as your choice...
TCJ70
Apr 2019
#126
Name-recognition is meaningless compared to turnout. Fact of the matter is...
NurseJackie
Apr 2019
#178
Then there was something about how people who refused to vote someone because of their skin color...
NurseJackie
Apr 2019
#200
I will no longer respond to trolls who pretend to be Bernie supportors and bash him every
vsrazdem
Apr 2019
#206
As my older brother used to ask when I'd ask a question similar to that, "Are you writing a book?"
George II
Apr 2019
#148
I don't remember Bernie going after Bill Clinton, one of the best presidents of my lifetime, if not
Autumn
Apr 2019
#156
He apologized to Sanders and his supporters in an apparent job application open letter
Hassin Bin Sober
Apr 2019
#140
"Because Brock should never be within a hundred miles of any campaign on our side."
workinclasszero
Apr 2019
#141
If Bernie wasn't the front runner, they would be agonizing over someone else
Politicub
Apr 2019
#139
I didnt support him then and im not supporting him now but where the hell are these
samnsara
Apr 2019
#151
Exactly. And now Brock is suddenly a genius and totally believable if he says something
R B Garr
Apr 2019
#170
Between this guy and his "Right Now" column and Jennifer Rubin and her "RightTurn" column
Hassin Bin Sober
Apr 2019
#288
That lobster dude is an unrepentant sexist pig. Why do you follow him?
Hassin Bin Sober
Apr 2019
#290
How is sanders going to get more than 30% of the Democratic vote in the real world?
Gothmog
Apr 2019
#291
The political media has been absolutely erect for another intra-party Civil War
Blue_Tires
Apr 2019
#308