Reply #92: Iran looking to its friends [View All]

[54anickel]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GI27Ak02.html

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Conclusion
The three year posturing between Iran and the US is moving closer toward confrontation. The US has been able to convince the EU-3 to put more pressure on Iran to abandon its desire to control the nuclear fuel cycle. However, as expected, both Russia and China have increased their resistance to attempts by the EU-3 and the US to place Iran before the council. Nevertheless, the US and the EU-3 have managed to push the IAEA board to pass a resolution that threatens to refer Iran to the Security Council if it does not pursue a series of measures to explain its nuclear activities.

Before the IAEA vote, Iran tried to demonstrate to the EU-3 that it will not abandon its wish to control the nuclear fuel cycle, even though this could damage economic and political relations with the European bloc. Tehran was betting that resistance by Moscow and Beijing to the joint US-EU-3 maneuvers would soften the EU-3's line and give Iran the ability to continue its nuclear research program. While a softer resolution was passed, it still damages Iran's interests since the resolution demands that Iran end the conversion of uranium and demands that it answer more questions about its nuclear research program.

It is important now for Iran to keep Russia and China on its side. If Iran does eventually get referred to the Security Council, it will need one of those two countries to veto any resolution that calls for sanctions. However, any such veto would create an international crisis and there is little doubt that both Russia and China want to avoid this development. It can be assumed that they will now put pressure on Iran to make its nuclear efforts look innocuous and to prevent a major escalation of rhetoric with the US and the EU-3.

The US, on the other hand, will have to continue to pressure the international community to resist Iran's wish to control the nuclear fuel cycle. With the intervention in Iraq draining US resources, Washington is not in a position to begin a new front across the border in Iran, even if that only involves executing air strikes on Iran's suspected nuclear facilities.

With the price of oil seeing record highs, the US and the EU-3 cannot afford to pursue any action that could result in uncertainty over oil supplies since that would push the price of oil even higher, threatening a recession in oil dependent countries. Indeed, this concern could also affect how willing the US and the EU-3 will be to eventually implement sanctions on Iran, since this too would create concern in the market.

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