Reply #49: Not I [View All]

[Solo_in_MD]

The issue that many in this thread are skirting is what will start hostilities. . My *guess* is that the US will not, but some zealot in the The Revolutionary Guard will work himself into a religious frenzy and launch from a single battery. Then its the Gulf of Tonkin all over again. The Europeans want Iran rolled back as bad as Bush, but a US or Israeli attack would allow them to issue public denunciations while rejoicing in public.

Whether or not Iran can stand up to US military attack is not in any question. Negligible air assets, minimal air defense, and little if any command and control, antique armor and communications. From a military, particularly air attack, its a pushover. As in Iraq, the real issue starts with after the uniformed resistance is eliminated. FOr that reason, ground military action in Iran is not tenable due to issues with the occupation like Iraq and Afghanistan.

The key element being ignored in the Sunburn advocates is targeting data. Without it, Sunburns are just skyrockets. Also like much of the advanced military equipment in the Middle East, its not clear if its still functional. For example, Iran has F-14s which have flown in a decade.

All that said, I fervently hope there will be no military action, or if there is, air attacks only. American boots on the ground in a 3rd muslim country would be about the worst thing we could do. Then again I felt that way about Afghanistan and Iraq.