Reply #16: don't like that $15 a barrel figure [View All]

[legin]

Iran production is about 2.5 million barrels.

Using 'a 1% change in supply equals a 10% change in price', would equate to about 15$ price rise if that oil went missing from the market.

So that is sort of saying that the loss of Iranian oil has already been discounted by the market, i.e. that it has a 100% probability of happening.