Reply #30: Most of us do get it. I see three possible scenarios here. [View All]

[pampango]

1. This turns out to be just republican fear-mongering and playing to their base, but has little on-the-ground effect. For whatever reason, when the law takes effect, the implementation will be so negligible or watered-down that it accomplishes nothing that the republicans actually wanted it to achieve (except for winning some political points for repub politicians with tea baggers). Arizona's politicians may become fearful of law suits, of boycotts, or of not being reelected, so they don't fund enforcement or in some other way keep this from being enforced. If it is not repealed, it will be still be a republican success because it will leave the police with enhanced powers and people more fearful.

2. They really do not racially profile and randomly check the documents of white, blacks, asians and hispanics. If they were really gung ho about enforcement and stopped many people at random, it would be interesting to see how long it takes for the political blow back from citizens (who would be the majority of the people who are checked) who are detained for not having the right documents. Also, inevitably they are going to request documents from a Democrat who thinks this is a horrible and unconstitutional policy and will want to stick it to the republican-controlled state government to get this reversed.

3. They do racially profile. The most likely scenario in my opinion, but others differ. This will diminish the political blow back from white, black and asian citizens in the state, since they won't be directly affected on a regular basis - which is why it is a smarter strategy politically, if not legally and constitutionally. It would be interesting to see if the focus on hispanics scares both illegal immigrants into leaving (either to Mexico or to another state) and hispanic US citizens into just being thankful that their papers are in order so that they can go about their lives.

The bigger the brouhaha becomes over this legislation with threats of boycotts, lawsuits, and demonstrations, with even a few republican politicians distancing themselves from it, and with a lot of bad publicity for the state, the more likely scenario #1 is.

If the law does become effective later this summer and republicans really do want to enforce it, neither #2 or #3 are things I would like to see happen, but it will be interesting to see which path is taken.