Reply #19: That's a good question . . [View All]

[msmcghee]

I'm no expert but I suspect the men will vote according to how their local tribal leaders tell them to vote. It will be a test of loyalty - as everything is in a tribal warrior culture.

Whether Karzai can demand their loyalty depends on his ability to dominate them militarily and politically. I don't think he wields much political power outside of Kabul. So it would depend on his ability to wield the military power that we are putting at his disposal. I guess he also has some financial power thanks to our taxes that are certainly being used to bribe the war lords to bring in votes from the provinces.

In the West, the path to success lies in choosing a good occupation and then getting a good education in that field.

In the "stans" and most of the Mideast, for all but the very few who manage to leave to get an education, success is falling in behind a local warrior/political strongman who will be able to gain power for himself in the hierarchy. You then advance within by showing your loyalty - that you're ready to die for that person - and you ride that person's status as it increases.

Pick the right guy and show your loyalty over many years and you too can be rich and powerful by the time you die. Maybe rich enough to send your sons abroad to get an education.