Reply #1: Wedge issue work on percentages. [View All]

[Silverhair]

67% of the general voting populace is opposed to gay marriage. Almost all of the 33% that favor gay marriage are ALREADY DEMOCRATS.
The RW base and the swing voters are almost completely opposed.

Yes, there really are people who vote Democrat one time and Republican the next, and vice versa. They really do exist. Just because someone voted for Gore in 2000 DOES NOT automatically make them a hard core DU-participating yellow dog Democrat. And the swing voters ALWAYS decide the election.

Further, Blacks are 75% opposed to gay marriage. Latinos are almost completely strongly Roman Catholic. I would hope that you already know that church's stance on the issue. Further, the famous Latino machismo leaves little room for gays. We only need to lose a few percentage points of our base to get badly hurt. If only one in twenty of those two groups is swayed by the gay marriage issue, then that is 5%, and that hurts. Remember, only one in twenty isn't that many, but the impact of those few would be signifigant.

Sorry, but those are facts, and those facts add up a great wedge issue for the Reps. They control ALL the committees in the congress and will be able to bring the FMA to a floor vote this year. For the Reps it is a safe vote. For many Democrats it will be a dangerous vote.

Also, remember the POTUS election is decided by the electoral college. If W loses some votes in a strong blue state over this issue he hasn't hurt himself at all, nor does he help himself by picking up votes in a strong red state. But if he picks up some votes in a marginal blue or red state, then he would have the election in the bag.

This is a strong emotional issue, and logic doesn't help a whole lot here. It's what's called a "hot button" issue. It gets people all inflamed and motivated. And getting lots of people motivated on an issue that is 67% against us is NOT the way to win elections.