Reply #6: My predictions... [View All]

[KaraokeKarlton]

Braun and Sharpton will probably drop out before Iowa just because they don't have much money. Kucinich will hold on for as long as he can but will drop out by the end of SC at the latest. Gephardt will lose Iowa to Dean and it will devastate his campaign. He might hang in until after SC, but I doubt it. Kerry will be banking on a third place in Iowa and first or second in NH. He won't get either and after a poor showing in SC, he'll continue to fizzle out, lasting a little while longer, but probably not much. That will leave Edwards, Clark and Dean. I think most of the other candidates' supporters will end up supporting Dean, then Clark, then Edwards. Even though those supporters of other candidates often show a lot of animosity towards Dean, I don't think it's anything more than envy and wishing that their candidate were in Dean's shoes. People don't want to support losing campaigns. After wins in Iowa and NH and a possible win in SC (at least in the top 2), Dean will be looking more and more like the clear winner and that alone will pull the most people in. I think Edwards stays in for awhile until it becomes obvious that he can't touch Clark, let alone Dean. This leaves Dean and Clark for the end game. I think that because Clark started late and Dean has been at a full sprint throughout that it's going to be Dean. I also suspect that the DLC and DNC will beg Dean to choose Clark as VP unless he makes a royal screw up between now and then. If he does, they will push Edwards. Dean will take either of the two as VP and make it appear to be a gesture to mend the rift with the Democratic Leadership, but he would have both on his short list anyhow.

Dean will win the nomination and either Clark or Edwards will be the VP, depending entirely on how good or bad Clark does from now until then.

Oh, Lieberman will be out around the same time as Kerry. He'll hang on longer than Gephardt, but not much.