Reply #128: Both polls show Clark leading [View All]

[RandomUser]

But the lead in that poll is less than the lead in this one. So it would mean that more of the other supporters migrated to Clark than Dean. But it does not mean that they all did. If you look at the lead margins, if they had, the Clark lead in the Clark/Dean poll would be even higher. This suggest that the supporters of other candidates split between Clark and Dean, with a greater percentage migrating to Clark. But this also disproves the theory that they all migrated to Clark in an attempt to knock down Dean.

There's enough of them voting for Dean to indicate they're not all voting for Clark solely out of spite. But there's a significantly larger body of them voting for Clark to show they support Clark over Dean.

They like Clark, and it's not because they just want to knock down Dean. The change is real. Clark leads in both polls. Contrast this with previous polls where Clark is always behind Dean by ten to five percent.

The two polls are consistent, there is indeed a change in DU.

(on edit: the lead in the other poll would indeed indicate a virtual tie. But if all the other candidate supporters migrated to Clark, the lead in this poll would be much higher)