Reply #3: It's a thought-provoking framing of the problem. [View All]

[GliderGuider]

There seems to be a growing recognition these days of the challenges posed by tipping points, inflections or phase changes. I wonder if the literal phase change of the Arctic ice cap this past summer helped the idea break through. The closer you get to it, the less realistic is the notion that we will see long gentle declines that give us time to adapt, whether to the loss of oil or to climate chaos. The real world doesn't work that way, only the projections of amateur modelers using Excel spreadsheets ;-)

Peak Oil, Peak Food, net oil exports go to zero, the Arctic ice cap vanishes, the Siberian tundra melts to methane, the international investment community wakes up to realize that the perpetual growth machine has run down - all these represent inflections in the course of human history (or at least our current civilization). How many bullets can we dodge at once, I wonder?