Reply #20: Nader said something very astute the other day [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

"Instead of attacking me, or trying to keep me off ballots, the Democrats should be trying to register the 9 million unregistered blacks in the swing states, 90% of whom would vote Democratic."

I live in Las Vegas. The other night I was in a grocery store when maybe six 25ish black guys came in, one of them chanting "four more years, four more years..." I was shocked.

"Don't let me hear that shit. You guys look smarter than that," I said. Two or three of them laughed and said they were just repeating something they heard on the radio. I asked if they were voting for Bush. "Fuck no." But when I asked if they were voting for Kerry, only one of them claimed he was registered and he isn't planning to vote.

Keep in mind this is in a swing state with a huge registration drive. I have no idea why we don't prioritize registering and energizing black voters first and foremost. The math is simple and revealing: a 100 person block of black voters figures to go 90-10, or close, to Kerry for a net +80. Compare that to a 60-40 group, a huge percentage, but one that would require 400 voters to equal the same +80 margin, 240-160.

I think Kerry will lose 2-3% of Gore's numbers among blacks. It has been in my Excel 2004 election model for three years. Simply a common sense projection, that an incumbent president with non-atrocious approval and likeability will sway a few percent based on familiarity alone.