Reply #20: What we've seen is that Hillary's number stays basically static... [View All]

[scheming daemons]

She probably WILL get between 42 and 48 in Ohio.

The number that moves is almost ALWAYS the challenger.


The first rule of political campaigns is that if an "incumbent" is not polling above or at 50%, then they are in trouble. People have already made up their mind about the "incumbent", so their number is usually at or near its ceiling. As they find out about a challenger, his/her number moves.

Because of Hillary's name recognition, she is the "incumbent" for all intents and purposes in this race.


Look at her California numbers... people are calling it a collapse, but it really isn't. She was at 45-ish a month ago and is STILL there. But Obama has gone from 28 to 45-ish.

She isn't bleeding support, but Obama is picking up almost ALL of the undecideds and former Edwards supporters.


Obama's 19 in Ohio will be double that once he starts campaigning there. The question is whether Hillary can hold him off, because she's not likely to go up much.