Reply #12: Who knows, this early in the game? [View All]

[Bill Todd]

If I had to guess what Kerry is doing, I'd say that he's sitting back, letting surrogates attack Bush, and waiting for Bush to screw up (as he does on such a regular basis) while John Forbes Kerry slowly becomes better-known to the electorate without, insofar as possible, committing himself to specific positions (a tactic that he's very well-versed in).

If I had to guess what Bush is doing, I'd say that he's throwing up a lot of stuff against the wall early (early enough not to look anything like last-minute desperation) to see which pieces seem to have sticking power for the long term, while keeping some of the choicest items in reserve.

The main difference between the two is that the American public pretty much already knows (at least vaguely) the negative stuff that there is to know about Bush and doesn't seem all that bothered by it (and Kerry shows little evidence of being a man able to wake them up). By contrast, they've got a great deal left to learn about Kerry, and an opposition extremely competent at molding their perceptions as they learn it.

If the electorate weren't largely uncritical, uninformed sheep, there'd be no doubt about the outcome of the election (well, there might be some excitement about whether Bush would finish 2nd or 3rd - or whether the GOP would dump him at the convention for someone more 'electable'). In our current reality, it's going to be a long 6+ months.

- bill