Reply #11: Here is why I run a simulation. [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

There are many states which could go either way. We want to be able to determine what would happen if we ran 1000 combinations of outcomes (electoral votes) knowing the probability of winning each state based on the latest polls.

Lets assume the following election between candidates A and B in a country in which there are only three states.

State 1: 90% prob of a win (10 EV) for candidate A
State 2: 51% prob of a win (8 EV) for A
State 3: 51% prob of a win for (17 EV) for B

If we just add up the states where A leads, then he would always be a winner with 18EV vs. 17EV for B.

But we really want to see what the probability is that A wins the election, because we cannot just assume that he will win States 1 and State 2 and lose state 3. So we use Monte Carlo simulation and run it 1000 times (trial elections). We add up the electoral votes for the states that A wins in each trial. If it is greater than 269, A wins that trial run.

For example, if A wins 520 trials, the probability that A will win the election is 52%. Candidate B would then have a 48% probability.