Reply #9: Funny you should ask-from today: [View All]

[babylonsister]

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/09/the-electoral-tie-scenarios.html

The Electoral Tie Scenario(s)

By Craig Crawford | September 22, 2008 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (225)

Just a few clicks of the map on the CQ Politics Electoral Scenario Builder and you quickly get to a 269-269 tie. I've found at least eight reasonably possible breakdowns where that occurs, but perhaps the most likely is to give Democrat Barack Obama the states won by his party's 2004 nominee, John Kerry, and add Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada.

The worst thing about an Electoral tie would be having to dust off one of the Constitution's most confusing passages -- a provision of the 12th Amendment. On the surface it seems easy enough. The House picks the president, so Obama wins since Democrats control, right?

Not so fast. The House balloting under the 12 Amendment is one vote per state (resulting in the horribly disproportionate scenario where Wyoming and California carry equal weight).

Obama still should have the advantage in a House tally of state delegations. In its current configuration (and assuming a strict party-line vote), the House would award 28 votes to Obama and 21 to GOP nominee John McCain. Two states are evenly split by party, presumably resulting in a tie. And the District of Columbia gets to vote.

But the incoming House would likely be the decider (the 12th Amendment is not entirely clear on this point) and we don't know what the party breakdown will be until after the election. Although a good guess will be that Democrats gain seats.

So it appears that an Electoral tie goes to Obama -- unless the McCain team figures out a way to have the Supreme Court pick another president.