Reply #12: I think they're wrong. [View All]

[Cuban_Liberal]

I know tons of Dean supporters and lots of Kerry supporters, and I still see a fairly comfortable Dean win with a strong second-place finish by Kerry and a virtual Gephardt/Edwards tie for 3rd place.

Dean has an impressive organization and almost fanatically-loyal supporters, and most of the polls don't account for many people who are expected to vote for him--- first-time caucus goers.

I still say Dean 35-38%, Kerry 22-25% and Gephart and Edwards each in the barely +15% range, which would be great for Edwards and disastrous for Gephardt.