Reply #74: On local success does not equal national success. Simple logic Nick [View All]

[Tom Rinaldo]

If Warner runs, and if Bayh runs, and if Richardson runs, and if Vilsak runs, if all those guys run, local success can not equal national success for all of them. At most it can for one of them. Every four years a bunch of contenders seek the Presidency from both major parties who have excellent credentials regarding popularity in their home state, and almost all of them lose, and many of them bomb.

Look at Senator Bob Graham from Florida last time. He was the most popular politician in Florida, an extremely respected Senator and Ex-Governor of that State. He didn't even make it to Iowa. We can run down the list from prior years also and it is the same thing. Sure, frequently a Democrat who was really popular in their home state wins, but more often they are eliminated from contention on the national stage, often in the early stages. I remember really liking Bruce Babitt in 1992, popular Democratic Governor of the then very red state of Arizona. Great guy, eliminated early.

It is not a definitive indicator of anything, other than that someone should probably be regarded as a serious candidate, if they are popular in their home state. Better than the opposite? Certainly.