(Poll results) Republican voters might stay home [View All]

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http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_450909.html



By Charlie Cook
Sunday, May 7, 2006

(snip)
It is clear that these issues have taken a toll. RT Strategies, headed by Thom Riehle, a veteran Democrat pollster, and Lance Tarrance, one of the pioneering pollsters on the Republican side, found that when respondents were asked which party they would like to see in control of Congress after these elections, Democrats had an advantage of 11 points among all adults, 48-37 percent; 12 points among registered voters, 49-37 percent; and 17 points among the most likely voters, 53-36 percent.

In the other variation of what has come to be known as the generic congressional ballot test, when people were asked whether they planned on voting for the Democrat candidate for Congress or the Republican, Democrats led by 12 points among adults, 44-32 percent; by 13 points among registered voters, 45-32 percent; and by a whopping 18 points among those most likely to vote, 50-32 percent.

(snip)

"Most likely voters" were those who, when asked on a scale of one (low) to 10 (high) how interested they were in the November midterm elections, selected nine or 10. Among all registered voters, 50 percent described their level of interest as 10. But there was a huge discrepancy between the parties, with 54 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of Republicans choosing the highest number.

(snip)

This poll shows only 25 percent of registered voters saying they would definitely vote to re-elect their member of Congress, 36 percent said they would consider voting for someone else and 21 percent said that they would definitely vote for someone else.

Charlie Cook, an independent political analyst, is a columnist for National Journal.