Reply #44: I think you are carrying the logic [View All]

[nodular]

of one person knocking out another too far. The nominee will probably be Clinton or Obama. There is a reasonable chance one or both may run into trouble and get Edwards an opening, in which case he might win the nomination.

Going further down the list leads to very unlikely results. The structure of our primaries these days has changed radically. In the past, a candidate who was not known nationally and did not have much money, such as Jimmy Carter, could do well in some early primaries based on a lot of shoe leather, some charm, and may be a very clever campaign operative.

As the months of the primary campaign war on, Carter gradually accrued money, support, and national recognition. By the time of the convention he had enough delegates to win.

But now, states keep moving up their primary dates to prevent their votes from becoming "irrelevant." This keeps pushing the "decision point" backward in time. Most experts seem to think that these primaries will be settled by February 5. They will be starting in January. in effect, this means the "preprimary" campaign that we are now undergoing is, in reality the real campaign.