Amy Goodman: Lessons of the Chesapeake Sweep [View All]

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from Truthdig:



Lessons of the Chesapeake Sweep

Posted on Feb 13, 2008
By Amy Goodman

After the Potomac Primary, Virginia is the new Massachusetts and Texas is the new Florida. Barack Obama claimed a “Chesapeake Sweep,” winning all three primaries—Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia—by decisive margins. Hillary Clinton, whose campaign conceded these, is betting the house on the forthcoming, delegate-rich primaries of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with no campaign stops announced for next week’s voting states, Wisconsin and Hawaii.

Clinton’s campaign is often quoted labeling the Latino vote in Texas as her “firewall” (or, as The Guardian wryly notes, her “contrafuego"). Before the polls closed in the Potomac Primary, she was campaigning in El Paso, Texas. Deploying a strategy like Rudy Giuliani, of skipping and losing several states while banking on a win in a key state (as he did with Florida), Clinton is campaigning to retain her grip on the Latino, the lower-income and female voting blocs. Exit polls from the Potomac Primary suggest Obama is beginning to shave some percentage points from her hold on these core constituencies.

While pundits opine over the unexpectedly competitive Democratic race, a key factor bears note: The voter turnout is unprecedented and, if sustained into November, could create an epochal shift in the U.S. political landscape.

Take Virginia. Could this red state be turning blue? In sheer numbers, the Democrats turned out close to 1 million voters on Tuesday, while the Republicans turned out closer to 475,000. Fact: Democrats turned out two and a half more times the number of people than voted in the Virginia primary in 2004, and outvoted Republicans this time by a factor of 2-to-1. Democratic voters are turning out in droves, while Virginia Republicans seem to be sitting this one out.

This could presage two important outcomes. First, Virginia might shift from a red state to a blue state come the election in November. While Virginia has reliably delivered its electoral votes to the Republicans for decades, John McCain should take heed, as the last Republican presidential candidate to lose Virginia was a Republican senator from Arizona (Barry Goldwater, losing to Lyndon Johnson in 1964). Recall, as well, that the voters of Virginia were the first to elevate an African-American to governor, electing Democrat Douglas Wilder in 1990. This surge in voter turnout could also usher in a second Democratic senator in Virginia, replacing retiring Republican Sen. John Warner, who turns 81 this week.

Consider Colorado. Again, this state has seen a tremendous surge in voter turnout. In the recent caucus (handily won by Obama), Democrats turned out about 112,000 versus the Republicans’ 70,000. Colorado is described as a “purple” state, shifting from red to blue: The state has gone to the Republican candidate in every election since Dwight Eisenhower, with the exception of Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992. In 2004, Democrat Ken Salazar won the Senate seat vacated by Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell, while Salazar’s brother John won a House seat that had been held by right-wing Scott McInnis for 12 years. Like Warner, Republican Sen. Wayne Allard is retiring, and polls, along with the increased voter participation, point to a Democratic win for popular Rep. Mark Udall for the Senate. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080213_lessons_of_the_chesapeake_sweep/