Reply #3: I agree to some extent [View All]

[NMMatt]

I wouldn't expect Hillary to drop out before OH and TX. However it would be extremely difficult for her to catch up in pledged delegates. She basically needs to win OH and TX by the 20 point margins that Obama has been winning the post-February 5 states. If she simply wins them by 5 to 10 point margins, she may be able to change the dynamic and muddy the waters by the end of the primary season and leave the winner in doubt, however she won't catch up in pledged delegates. Even over-coming the nearly 100 delegate total margin would be difficult. Do the math. She needs to win nearly 60% of the remaining pledged and/or convince the majority of the remaining super delegates to side with her. Or, I suppose, pick of some of the caucus delegates, but based on what I've heard about in NV (Obama picking up extra due to her delegates not showing up) and her ground game in general - I find that highly unlikely. Oh, and she has to win 60% or so with a serious money disadvantage.

That's her best case scenario. All Obama has to do is out perform the polls a bit (which he has been in every post 2/5 state basically) and/or keep the polls moving in his direction, which has been the case in nearly every state so far including your CA's and MA's, and win OH and TX and end this thing.