Reply #74: It's a soft number, or an indicator based on polls, not a prediction [View All]

[phrigndumass]

... and polls will sway a bit here and there. But the number is mostly spiraling downward. Last week at this time it was 69, and 77 the week before. Also, everytime a superdelegate endorses Senator Obama, it goes down one. Zero is the target.

Here's a calculation to illustrate:

Senator Obama currently has 1,420.5 pledged delegates

Senator Obama currently has 234 super delegates

Total delegates so far is 1,420.5 + 234 = 1,654.5

Based on polls for upcoming state contests, Senator Obama should pick up 287 pledged delegates in those states. His pledged delegates would then be 1,420.5 + 287 = 1,707.5.

His total delegates would then be 1,707.5 pledged + 234 super = 1,941.5

Total to nominate is 2,023.5.

The number of additional super delegates needed would be 2,023.5 - 1,941.5 = 82

Senator Obama's magic number is 82.

However, once Senator Obama gains 63 of those 82 super delegates that he needs, it will be impossible for Senator Clinton to reach 2,023.5, based on her current delegates and the polls for upcoming state contests.

Hoping that helps clarify!

:hi:

(p.s. I'll be happy to do another illustration for Senator Clinton's numbers for comparison, just let me know)