Reply #15: FWIW it looks like TIA's number would be [View All]

[OnTheOtherHand]

that Dems have a 99% chance of picking up 30 seats, so, 233-202 or so. The 238-200 in the OP appears to be an editorial interpolation.

Of course, TIA never even thinks to list as one of his assumptions that the polls are accurate within sampling error -- all house effects are zero, etc. Here are some thoughts from Mark Blumenthal, whom TIA used to like until Blumenthal had the temerity to disagree with him: http://www.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/handicapping_the_house_part_i.php

Nothing here says that the polls are necessarily wrong on average, just that the uncertainties are a lot larger than TIA's "VERY ROBUST ESTIMATE" admits. Damn, I hate it when people hawk false certainty on progressive websites.

But if people are encouraged to go vote, I'm all for that.