Reply #23: Most of this "analysis" is wrong [View All]

[nodictators]

1)Gore got 48.5 million, Bush 48 million, the rest to Nader
et al.

This is irrelevant since those are Election 2000 data

2 Let's assume 20 million new voters, for a total of 120
million
Kerry gets 59%, Bush 39% (Kerry gets 3 out of 5) or Kerry
gets 12 out of the 20 million. Bush gets 8 million.
That's a net Kerry gain of 4 million votes

Item #2 based on the poll data it is true. However, it's not a "gain" for Kerry.

3) Kerry got 65% (2 million) of the 3 million who voted for
Nader et all. Bush got 13% or 0.5 million.
That's a net Kerry gain of 1.5 million votes

Item #3 is erroneous, there is a confusion between 2000 data and 2004 data. There were only about a million votes for presidential candidates other than Bush or Kerry in 2004, not 3 million. Furthermore, we don't know how many voters who didn't vote for Bush or Gore in 2000 might have voted in 2004. So, take 65% of what?

4) Assume the rest of the voters voted as they did in 2000.

Item #4 is non-analytical: Assume the Result.