Reply #5: You say this over and over and it's wrong. [View All]

[blurp]

Historically, Exit polls are accurate within 2%

The people doing the polling say it's +/-4% for state polls and that assumes they estimate the turnout correctly.


http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.html

"What is the Margin of Error for an exit poll?

"Every number estimated from a sample may depart from the official vote count. The difference between a sample result and the number one would get if everyone who cast a vote was interviewed in exactly the same way is called the sampling error. That does not mean the sample result is wrong. Instead, it refers to the potential error due to sampling. The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is about +/- 3% for a typical characteristic from the national exit poll and +/-4% for a typical state exit poll. Characteristics that are more concentrated in a few polling places, such as race, have larger sampling errors. Other nonsampling factors may increase the total error.

Among those nonsampling factors includes estimated turnout (which they got very wrong).

"How do you select sample precincts?

"The polling places were selected as a stratified probability sample of each state. The purpose of stratification is to group together precincts with similar vote characteristics. A recent past election was used to identify all the precincts as they existed for that election. The total vote in each precinct and the partisan division of the vote from this past race are used for the stratification. In addition, counties are used for stratifying the precincts. The total vote also is used to determine the probability of selection. Each voter in a state has approximately the same chance of being selected in the sample."

So the error for each state is going to be some combination of the sampling error (+/-4%) and the error that comes from using previous elections turnout numbers.

Bottom line:

The Repubs won the turnout battle. If Dean had been the nominee, you better believe more Dems would have shown up to vote.

Focus on why the primary process screwed Dean and fix that.