Reply #44: I mostly agree [View All]

[Mistwell]

I don't know the odds of 11 of 13 swinging one way, rather than 6.5 of 13 swinging that way (which would be an exactly equal swing). Perhaps someone could calculate it?

As for margin of error...I really don't know. I don't have sufficient data to know if any prior EARLY exit polls were off by more than the margin of error. I know they have been accurate for a final predictions in races that were not particularly close...but I really don't know for MOE issues concerning close elections.

I do know that the Ukraine exit poll for the SECOND election (which was one of the most watched and counted elections I know of) DID vary beyond the margin of error, though it was accurate for the final prediction of who won.

As for what went wrong with this one (if anything), I have heard the following factors: Too few western states includes; too many women included; too many Democrats included; too many early-day voters included. I have no idea if any of those were really a factor, though it is something I would like to know more about.

As for TIA...yeah, I've tried to discuss these issues with him. I appreciate his work, and think his heart is in the right place. However, I don't think he is interested in discussing any potential claims that the exit poll itself was flawed. That's fine - everyone does things their own way. But it isn't as useful for me, if I am trying to really pin down the exit poll portion of this issue.