Reply #8: This is amazing, TIA! I took a closer look at some of the breakouts: [View All]

[Nothing Without Hope]

It's so clear that not only did Kerry win, he won exactly the way we expected him to.

In each group of five numbers, the first number is the PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL VOTES ANALYZED, the second is % votes for KERRY, the third is % votes for BUSH, and the fourth is % votes for NADER. (What does the fifth number mean, TIA? Its code explanation is “Rep2000”)

Total votes: 51% Kerry, 48% Bush, 1% Nader.
Females were pro-Kerry (9% margin) while males were more narrowly pro-Bush (4% margin)

Number of Interviews - 11,027
Vote Estimate Not for On-Air Use
100 51 48 1 -
Are you: (n=10,978)
Male 46 47 51 1 -2
Female 54 54 45 1 2

Kerry won STRONGLY among first-time voters (13% margin), who represented 11% of the total votes. In this analysis, Kerry also won among the respondents who had voted before (2% margin)

Is this the first time you have ever voted? (n=5,430)
Yes 11 56 43 - 0
No 89 50 48 1 0

Self-described independents made up 26% of total and went for Kerry (7% margin). There were slightly more Dems than Repubs (38% vs 36%) and both went strongly for their party’s candidate.

No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:(n=10,553)
Democrat 38 90 9 1 -2
Republican 36 7 92 0 1
Independent or something else 26 52 45 2 -2

People deciding on their choice in the last month (15% of total) went more for Kerry. People who decided before that (79%) were evenly divided, 50/50.

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? (n=6,856)
Just today 6 53 40 5 -
In the last three days 3 53 41 4 -
Sometime last week 2 48 51 1 -
During the last month 10 60 38 1 -
Before that 79 50 50 0 –

Here is the breakdown by four sections of the country. Kerry won by 18% margin in the East and by an 8% margin in theWest; Bush won by a 1% margin in the Midwest, and Bush won by a 9% margin in the South.

National Region (n=11,027)
East 22 58 40 1 1
Midwest 25 50 49 1 0
South 31 45 54 1 -1
West 21 53 45 1 -1

Kerry won by a 19% margins in larger cities (pop. over 50,000) and by a 1% margin in suburbs; Bush won by an 8% margin in small cities and rural populations.

Population of area, three categories (n=9,027)
City over 50 thousand 30 59 40 1 5
Suburbs 45 50 49 1 0
Small city and Rural 24 45 53 1 -6