Reply #3: Size matters up to a point...and then nothing much matters after that. [View All]

[autorank]

The Republicans had it all figured out.  They knew Ohio would
be the key to the electoral victory so they did everything
that they could to make sure they took that state.  But that
was just part of it. They also realized that they had to win a
popular victory.  Thorough and intelligent.  Hence, the
strangeness of the largest states, in terms of total vote, all
leaning to Bush using the exit polls as the measure of vote
"reallocation."  How could it be that in the 16
largest vote count states, Kerry lost votes using the state
exit polls as a measure, in every state but one (TX)?  Well,
it probably couldn't be; but by 2004 we were well into faith
based elections.

Here are the 16 largest states by total vote
count.												
State	Votes	RESP.	K/B	K/50B	Kvote	Pct	Bvote	Pct	Kpoll	Pct	Bpoll	Pct	Dev
CA	12,255	50.50%	1.33	66.7	6,745	55.00%	5,510	45.00%	6,830	55.70%	5,425	44.30%	-85
FL	7,548	49.00%	1.48	73.8	3,584	47.50%	3,965	52.50%	3,769	49.90%	3,779	50.10%	-185
TX	7,360	58.30%	1.4	69.9	2,833	38.50%	4,527	61.50%	2,711	36.80%	4,648	63.20%	122
NY	7,277	57.90%	0.97	48.6	4,314	59.30%	2,963	40.70%	4,655	64.00%	2,622	36.00%	-340
PA	5,732	46.80%	1	50.2	2,938	51.30%	2,794	48.70%	3,119	54.40%	2,613	45.60%	-181
OH	5,599	44.10%	1.51	75.7	2,740	48.90%	2,859	51.10%	2,915	52.10%	2,684	47.90%	-175
IL	5,239	51.90%	0.85	42.5	2,892	55.20%	2,347	44.80%	2,993	57.10%	2,246	42.90%	-101
MI	4,793	50.20%	0.84	41.8	2,479	51.70%	2,314	48.30%	2,519	52.60%	2,274	47.40%	-40
NJ	3,581	59.70%	0.83	41.6	1,911	53.40%	1,670	46.60%	2,010	56.10%	1,571	43.90%	-99
NC	3,487	52.60%	1.35	67.3	1,526	43.80%	1,961	56.20%	1,650	47.30%	1,837	52.70%	-124
GA	3,280	63.90%	1.52	75.8	1,366	41.60%	1,914	58.40%	1,414	43.10%	1,866	56.90%	-48
VA	3,172	56.40%	0.82	40.9	1,455	45.90%	1,717	54.10%	1,521	48.00%	1,651	52.00%	-66
WI	2,968	55.30%	0.82	41	1,490	50.20%	1,478	49.80%	1,490	50.20%	1,477	49.80%	-1
MA	2,875	56.50%	0.96	48.1	1,804	62.70%	1,071	37.30%	1,911	66.50%	964	33.50%	-107
WA	2,815	53.80%	0.82	41.2	1,510	53.60%	1,305	46.40%	1,550	55.10%	1,265	44.90%	-40
MN	2,792	45.30%	0.82	41.2	1,445	51.80%	1,347	48.20%	1,525	54.60%	1,267	45.30%	-80
												Total	-1550


So the difference between exit poll and actual vote results
for Kerry is a 1,550 million votes in the 16 largest states.

They took Ohio, and, just through these 16 states, they
assured a popular victory.  Adjusting the actual vote (error
and corruption tainted) by the state exit polls, you get a
Kerry win as soon as you get to MN in the total vote count
ranking

Actual Vote  Exit Dif    Revised Vote
62,040,610(-)1,550,000(=)60,490,610
59,028,111(+)1,550,000(=)60,578,111  Kerry Wins Popular Vote

Take Ohio, crush Kerry in the Electoral College.
Take votes, liberally, and you assure a popular vote victory
as well.
The combined strategy removes the risks of 2000 and assures *
four more years.

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Somebody explain this one, please.  There may be a clue here
to our larger problem.  Here's the "Green" state
Vermont with a huge disparity against Kerry in the vote/poll
ratio, even though the state went for Kerry and is a
"progressive state."  While overwhelmingly
Republican in state control and in presidential preference,
the Montana vote/poll match up is nearly perfect.  
???What could this mean???

State	Votes	RESP.	K/B	K/50B	Kvote	Pct	Bvote	Pct	Kpoll	Pct	Bpoll	Pct	Dev
VT	305	53.1%	0.89	44.7	184	60.3%	121	39.7%	201	65.7%	105	34.3%	-16	-10.8%
MT	440	63.0%	1.03	51.7	174	39.5%	266	60.5%	173	39.3%	267	60.7%	1	0.4%