Peak Oil update [View All]

[Kelvin Mace]

Since I found myself digging into oil production numbers today, I thought I would list those countries whose oil production has apparently peaked, and those still increasing production.

Source - US DoE http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/supply.html

Figures are through the end of 2006, and are in megabarrels per day (Mbpd) average production for the year. Peaked countries are in bold, with the year they peaked. The percentage shown after the date is the amount of decline since peak.

Algeria - 1.81 Mbpd
Angola - 1.41 Mbpd
Argentina - 0.69 Mbpd (2001) -17.8%
Australia - 0.43 (2000) -40.6%
Azerbaijan - 0.64 Mbpd
Brazil - 1.72 Mbpd
Canada 2.53 Mbpd
China 3.67 Mbpd
Colombia - 0.53 Mbpd (1999) -34.9%
Denmark - 0.34 Mbpd (2004) -12.1%
Ecuador - 0.54 Mbpd
Egypt - 0.64 Mbpd (1996) -30.7%
Equatorial Guinea - 0.37 Mbpd (2005) -4.4%
Gabon - 0.24 Mbpd (1997) -35.9%
India - 0.69 Mbpd (1995) -1.9%
Indonesia - 1.02 Mbpd (1991) -36.5%
Iran - 4.03 Mbpd (2005) -2.7%
Iraq - 1.99 Mbpd*
Kazakhstan - 1.31 Mbpd
Kuwait - 2.53 Mbpd
Libya - 1.68 Mbpd
Malaysia - 0.61 Mbpd (1998) -14.8%
Mexico - 3.25 Mbpd (2004) -3.8%
Nigeria - 2.44 Mbpd (falloff from 2005 seems related to political violence, not production peak)
Norway - 2.49 Mbpd (2001) -24.5%
Oman - 0.74 Mbpd (2000) -23.9%
Qatar - 0.85 Mbpd
Russia - 9.24 Mbpd
Saudi Arabia - 9.15 Mbpd (2005) -4.2%
Sudan - 0.37Mbpd
Syria - 0.41 Mbpd (1996) -30.2%
UAE - 2.64 Mbpd
UK - 1.49 Mbpd (1999) -45.6%
USA - 5.10 Mbpd (1970) -47.01%
Venezuela - 2.51 Mbpd (1970) -32.2%
Vietnam - 0.34 Mbpd (2004) -14.6%
Yemen - 0.37 Mbpd (2001) -14.9%

* Fields operating way below capacity. All time high was 3.48 Mbpd in 1979. More recently 2.89 Mbpd in 1989, then 2.57 Mbpd in 2000

In summary 21 of 38 oil producers are in decline. The bigger the percentage of decline since peak, the less likely a country will "bounce back" with a new find. It is pretty much assumed that they have found all the oil there is to find. My own inexpert opinion is that anything greater than a 10% is a true peak.

Another way of looking at this is that the countries who produced an average of 35.44 Mbpd of the 72 Mbpd supply in 2006, 47.2%, have declining production.