Reply #24: There is not enough cohesion for even a partition [View All]

[Strelnikov_]

Pretty much 'Gangs of Iraq'.

Sometimes, there is no fixing it. You just have to live with the consequences. Consequences we will be suffering for decades at a minimum.


Accepting Realities in Iraq
by Dr Gareth Stansfield

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/mep/BPIraq0507.pdf (.pdf warning)


- The social fabric of Iraq has been torn apart.

- There is not ‘one’ civil war, nor ‘one’ insurgency, but several civil wars and insurgencies between different communities and organizations; there is also a range of actors seeking to undermine, overthrow or take control of the Iraqi government.

- Iraqi nationalisms exist, but one distinct ‘Iraqi’ nationalism does not. Iraq has fractured into regions dominated by sectarian, ethnic or tribal political groupings that have gained further strength from their control of informal local economies.

- Regional powers have a greater capacity than either the US or the UK to influence events in Iraq. This arises from a historical legacy of social interaction and religious association that exists irrespective of modern international state boundaries.

- The Iraqi government is not able to exert authority evenly or effectively over the country.
Across huge swathes of territory, it is largely irrelevant in terms of ordering social, economic, and political life. At best, it is merely one of several ‘state-like actors’ that now exist in Iraq.

- Security in Iraq cannot be ‘normalized’ in a matter of months but instead should be considered within a timeframe of many years. If the Multinational Force is withdrawn, Iraq’s nascent security services would not be able to cope with the current levels of insecurity.