Reply #187: Not likely, She will most likely lower the Republican's normal percentage [View All]

[pschoeb]

Pelosi has had third party including Greens, run against her, and a couple of years with no third party groups. Her percentage of the vote doesn't really change regardless of third party candidates, but when third parties run, including the Greens, the percentage that the Republican candidate gets drops. It'd pretty clear that many of the people who vote for the third party in SF seem to be independents that normally vote Republican (possibly as a protest vote, as the Republicans have no chance of winning), or are persons who don't vote at all for Democratic or Republican candidates. So Sheehan will probably do better than previous third party, much of that will actually lower the Republican candidates percentage, at least by 5%, which is what historically a leftist third party candidate has done. In Sheehan's case she might also lower Pelosi's percentage but the Republicans usually get 23% when no third party is running and 18% when one is(usually Greens), while Pelosi's percentage stays pretty much unchanged regardless. It's hard to see how the Republicans could pull off a win with their standard 18%, they are not going to get any higher, and my guess is they will drop even lower maybe running at 15% if Sheehan runs. How would both Pelosi and Sheehan do worse that 18%?

The real question is if Sheehan starts polling decently, then Pelosi is probably going to have to pull in more money to campaign, and might take up resources that would normally go to other candidates in tougher races.