Reply #82: Possibly.... [View All]

[Pab Sungenis]

but remember that the $500M is before any publicity or advertising costs are factored in.

There's one other thing that could kill "Avatar" off: the weather. New York and Philadelphia are snowed under this weekend, so two of the top 4 film markets are going to have very low attendance compared to projections. That's going to very negatively impact opening weekend grosses.

Opening weekend grosses are going to propel advertising purchase decisions. They're also going to make secondary markets think twice about investing in the film (like discount theaters not bringing it in). It will also really hurt in the expectations game. ("Avatar" should have had a $100M opening weekend, but it only did....)

That can make even a hit movie seem like a flop, and once the initial verdict is in, it's all over.