Reply #11: Harper keeps winning minorities because the left is split in Canada. [View All]

[applegrove]

There is the block quebecois in Quebec which is centre/left but also separatists. Then there are the liberals who are at 30%. Then the NDP at 17% that are far left. Now we have the Green party who garner a tiny portion of the vote but I expect them to grow.

So in order to win a minority...the Liberals would have to win 60% of the vote outside of Quebec and the conservatives strongholds. And winning 60% is pretty tough. There has been talk of a coalition... most recently on the part of the conservatives who want to scare centrists into voting conservative.

And there you have it. Most of the country is centre-left but they likely only have a chance at a minority government if at all.