Liberal enthusiasm is all but irrelevant to this campaign season [View All]

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The WH has spread the theme. The news media picks up the theme.

Everyone "knows" that disaffected liberals are not going to vote this year and that it is a substantial factor in the elections.

Except it's complete crap.

The biggest drop-offs in enthusiasm (likelihood to vote) from 2008-2010 are found among young, hispanic and black voters. Hispanic voters are a particular issue being far and away the lowest "I will vote this year" group.

The chief defectors are white rural and suburban Democrats who voted for Obama in 2008 and will stay home or, worse yet, will vote for Republicans in 2010.

Obama alienating the left will have little effect at the ballot box. The left, alienated or not, will vote Dem in the greatest percentage of anyone.

Similarly, left critiques of Obama will have little effect at the ballot box. The voters we are struggling to retain and energize are mostly lower information voters, not political junkies. (They think Firedog Lake is a clothing optional resort near Reno.)