Reply #4: I've been watching them for a while. [View All]

[karynnj]

They have a simplistic decision rule there, >5% safe, <= toss up. They do this either way. They also get that number averaging a number of polls that are recent enough (and they seem to throw out previous polls by the same outfit).

I look - not for their analysis - which is simplistic - but because they do have a nice list of polls that they update quickly. (A simple mathematical mean of the difference in the polls is not good if there is one very high outlier and it ignores any trending. )