Reply #10: I am more optimistic [View All]

[rabs]

Yes, polls have traditionally been unreliable. But in this case, the fact that Santos only has about 37 percent speaks volumes. Recall that latest polls are still giving uribe around a 70 percent approval rate. So to me, this would indicate that JM has lost massive ground within the uribismo movement. That could be because uribe supported his clone, Felipe Arias, to replace him in the presidential palace, but lo and behold, Noemi Sanin defeated uribito by 37,000 votes in the March 14 primary. Uribe still has not endorsed JM.

About the voting conditions: They have changed totally from the days of Uribe. The powerful paramilitary (AUC) groups that coerced campesinos to vote for Uribe are no longer around and a bunch of them have been extradited to the United States. Many of the parapoliticians and yidispoliticians that swung the re-election for uribe four years ago now are in jail or being investigated.

The primaries last month generated such controversy over the tabulation that this presidential election is going to have such internal and internationsl oversight that I don't think Santos can get away with stealing it. Recall the report in El Espectador that uribe was thinking of importing 10,000 electronic voting machines for the presidential election? Well, that report vanished from the frontpages, although it quoted none other than the president of the National Electoral Council.

I happened to bookmark the story, since it was so far out.

http://www.elespectador.com/articulo193606-estudian-posibilidad-de-establecer-voto-electronico-presidenciales

No doubt there are some in the Pentagon and Hil's State Department who favor Santos to keep Plan Colombia and the bases accords alive, even as the Constitutional Court is studying their legality.

That's why I think the Mockus-Fajardo alliance has shifted the political landscape, expecially for JM. This Green Party candidate and Fajardo all of a sudden are an attractive, middle-of-the political spectrum option for millions of Colombians who are sick of the uribismo corruption, the war, the La Macarenas, the paramilitarismo, the violence etc etc.

Granted, they may not win, but it is going to be interesting how far they go.
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An anecdotal note: When Walter Cronkite turned against the Vietnam War, LBJ said, "Well, that's it. I have lost middle America." Well, JM Santos had an LBJ moment today.

The Colombian pop superstar Juanes today twittered:

"Mockus + Fajardo = more education and less war."

And on Monday:

"Liberty of opinion is inherent in everyone. Mockus/Fajardo, marvelous."

Juanes in the past was known for his unabashed support of uribe.

So today, down the drain went a few million of the younger votes for Santos
:rofl: