When predicting 2010 elections one is also predicting the economy [View All]

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

If the third quarter of 2010 is flat or negative (back to recession) with unemployment rising then we are screwed even if the pugs run a national slate of flatulent gila monsters.

If, on the other hand, the economy is roaring along then we will do much better. (Probably would still lose a normal number of off-year-election seats but not a tragedy.)

All the political indicators are useful--- polling, fund-raising, who's retiring, etc.--but will end up largely deferring to the national economy.