Reply #27: Yeah, only once since 1896 has a party held the WH for just one consecutive term [View All]

[liberalpragmatist]

That was Jimmy Carter from 1977-1981. Otherwise, the US public typically gives the incumbent party the White House for at least two terms.

That isn't to say Obama can't lose reelection. Nor is it to say that his presidency could be drastically changed by this year's midterms. If Republicans retake both houses or even just one house, Obama becomes Clinton-redux. He can win reelection, but it'll be on the back of a (better) economy and the lack of a strong Republican opponent. And yes, if the unemployment rate stays at 10% and people are angry, Obama *could* lose even against a weak opponent like Romney.

Still, I think whatever happens in 2010 - and certainly I'm hoping Republicans don't capture either house - Obama is probably favored for reelection in 2012.