Reply #20: This shows how cause and effect are actually determined as opposed to your "show me" demand [View All]

[kristopher]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiological_method

The science of epidemiology has matured significantly from the times of Hippocrates and John Snow. The techniques for gathering and analyzing epidemiological data vary depending on the type of disease being monitored but each study will have overarching similarities.


Outline of the process of an epidemiological study


Establish that a problem exists
Full epidemiological studies are expensive and laborious undertakings. Before any study is started, a case must be made for the importance of the research.

Confirm the homogeneity of the events
Any conclusions drawn from inhomogeneous cases will be suspicious. All events or occurrences of the disease must be true cases of the disease.


Collect all the events
It is important to collect as much information as possible about each event in order to inspect a large number of possible risk factors. The events may be collected from varied methods of epidemiological study or from censuses or hospital records.
The events can be characterized by Incidence rates and prevalence rates.

Characterize the events as to epidemiological factors
Predisposing factors
Non-environmental factors that increase the likelihood of getting a disease. Genetic history, age, and gender are examples.
Enabling/disabling factors
Factors relating to the environment that either increase or decrease the likelihood of disease. Exercise and good diet are examples of disabling factors. A weakened immune system and poor nutrition are examples of enabling factors.
Precipitation factors
This factor is the most important in that it identifies the source of exposure. It may be a germ, toxin or gene.
Reinforcing factors
These are factors that compound the likelihood of getting a disease. They may include repeated exposure or excessive environmental stresses.


Look for patterns and trends
Here one looks for similarities in the cases which may identify major risk factors for contracting the disease. Epidemic curves may be used to identify such risk factors.

Formulate a hypothesis
If a trend has been observed in the cases, the researcher may postulate as to the nature of the relationship between the potential disease-causing agent and the disease.

Test the hypothesis
Because epidemiological studies can rarely be conducted in a laboratory the results are often polluted by uncontrollable variations in the cases. This often makes the results difficult to interpret. Two methods have evolved to assess the strength of the relationship between the disease causing agent and the disease.
Koch's postulates were the first criteria developed for epidemiological relationships. Because they only work well for highly contagious bacteria and toxins, this method is largely out of favor.
Bradford-Hill Criteria are the current standards for epidemiological relationships. A relationship may fill all, some, or none of the criteria and still be true.

Publish the results

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Measures

Epidemiologist are famous for their use of rates. Each measure serves to characterize the disease giving valuable information about contagiousness, incubation period, duration, and mortality of the disease.

Measures of occurrence

Incidence measures
Incidence rate, where cases included are defined using a case definition
Hazard rate
Cumulative incidence
Prevalence measures
Point prevalence
Period prevalence

Measures of association
Relative measures
Risk ratio
Rate ratio
Odds ratio
Hazard ratio
Absolute measures
Absolute risk reduction
Attributable risk
Attributable risk in exposed
Percent attributable risk
Levin’s attributable risk


Other measures

Virulence and Infectivity
Mortality rate and Morbidity rate
Case fatality
Sensitivity (tests) and Specificity (tests)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiological_method