The question now is whether the deep distaste for President Obama among Republicans — from the major donors to the grass-roots activists — will make voters follow their heads, not their hearts.
It’s a dynamic that played out seven years ago when Democrats were choosing someone to end the much-maligned tenure of President George W. Bush.
Former Vermont governor Howard Dean spoke to the passion of Democrats and looked like a surefire nominee as the calendar turned to 2004. But when it came time to choose, Dean was passed over for Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), a far-less-beloved candidate within the party base but someone with the résumé— most notably his time in Vietnam — that seemed to match up best with Bush’s. (In the New Hampshire primary, 33 percent of voters said nominating someone who could beat Bush was of paramount importance, and 56 percent of that bloc chose Kerry.)
Fast-forward to today, when an incumbent widely reviled by the party out of power is seeking a second term and the electability question is again a subject of fierce debate.
Polling seems to suggest that electability is taking a back seat to ideology. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll that concluded early this month, 73 percent of Republican respondents said it was more important to them to support a candidate they agreed with on the issues, while just 20 percent said a candidate’s chances of winning mattered most.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-gop-race-how-much-electability-matters-may-depend-on-beatability-of-obama/2011/10/23/gIQAxsSNAM_story.html