*****OFFICIAL DU PA PREDICTION THREAD***Record your Guess!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Mine:
Clinton will win by 6 points, netting her a gain of 10 delegates (against
a current Obama lead of 141)

Methodology: Factored in historic median error rates for each recent
pollster in each direction. Came up with a range of Obama winning
by .9375% to Clinton winning by 11.06%. Took the average of that
and came up with a 6 pt Clinton win. In other words, just like
everyone else, I pulled it out of my ass.

DU WINNERS WILL BE ANNOUNCED TOMORROW !

DELEGATES

Clinton Margin: 4
Clinton Delegate Gain: 6

Clinton Margin: 6
Clinton Delegate Gain: 10

Clinton Margin: 8
Clinton Delegate Gain: 12

Clinton Margin: 10
Clinton Delegate Gain: 16

Clinton Margin: 12
Clinton Delegate Gain: 18

Clinton Margin: 14
Clinton Delegate Gain: 22

Clinton Margin: 16
Clinton Delegate Gain: 26

Current Obama Delegate Lead: 141
LIKELY OUTCOME: 141 - 10 = 131



LINKS:
Using Delegate Calculator:
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278 /

[Teaser]

1. Clinton Margin 8

book it.

[Waya]

2. Obama

Margin 2

[elehhhhna]

3. Obama blows her doors off. End of HRC's campaign. Bankable. Come on, Philly & Pittsburgh!

[mopinko]

12. second

i think that there are a lot of new voters there who, like in other states, have not been polled. i predict a double digit victory for obama.
come on philly, yes we can.
and btw, did we ever find out if clinton is shelling out the street money in philly?

[MethuenProgressive]

4. Whatever Clinton wins by, DU will declare it wasn't enough.

[AX10]

5. As will Kos, TPM, Huffington, Buzzflash, Schultz, Miller,

and the rest of the nuts.

[guyanakoolaid]

10. As will reality, but Hillary's never been fond of it anyways.

[cliffordu]

14. Whatever Clinton wins by, her supporters will claim overall victory.

In all the primaries for all time....

[cloudythescribbler]

48. Perhaps you'd venture to say now what margin IS enough ...

[AspenRose]

6. HRC by 5

eom

[ShortnFiery]

7. Obama Margin 2

Clinton will then throw "a hissy fit" and demand a recount - but it will be an WIN for Obama. ;)

[meow mix]

8. O-52 C-48

[here_is_to_hope]

9. Obama by 15 in PA. Wait till Oregon when he

blows her out by 30...
Shit stinks and people tend to run from things that stink.

[Teaser]

21. I want what you're smoking

seriously, I hope you're right, but I just don't see it in PA.

[crankychatter]

44. smoking momentum I think

Most folks know that the Primary is hurting our November opportunity.

Most folks know it's mathematically impossible for Clinton to win.

This is the primary factor in "momentum" historically.

The MSM is downplaying this... covertly campaigning for Clinton.

But you can bet the Super Delegates are fully cognizant of the facts.

With even a marginal victory by Obama in PA... possible if not likely... they will flood to Obama.

With a marginal victory for Clinton expect the same thing.

Obama will have enough SD's for the nomination by the end of the Primary Season.

The SD's will seal the deal... Florida n Michigan will be irrelevant...

Still, the smart money is on the Military Industrial Complex and Corporate Transnationals that own stock in our media... historically, figures like Obama, Dean and Jerry Brown end up getting the shaft.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

61. There's got to be a turning point, don't you think? I think most of

the media (more liberal media) wants Obama to win. On one hand their
ratings have soared with the fight still going. But surely they will
rein it in - just for their own personal preference.

[here_is_to_hope]

45. Well...I do live in Oregon so....

but its way too early to be puffin'. The momentum, its there and he has it.
GOBAMA!

[southern_belle]

11. Obama 1-3 points n/t

[anonymous171]

13. A Hillary win, by 9 points.

[Lerkfish]

15. based on gut instinct alone: Clinton by less than 3%

which she will use as a "mandate" to stay in the race.

OR, Obama surprises everyone and wins by 6%, which Clinton will use as a "mandate" to stay in the race.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. lol - you are probably so right. no matter what happens - nothing

will happen and the race will continue on - as McPain floats along like this, and no one
will do anything to stop it.

[Khaotic]

17. Obama 60+ Pledged Delegates out of PA

That's my prediction.

He's on his way to 50%+1 and while Hillary will get the press and more delegates than Obama w/ PA, Obama will continue his victory march toward 50%+1.

That's what it's about and Obama will get it before June.

Mark my words.

The MSM will be rolling in Obama's loss as if there's only one primary in the whole process. They'll gush over Hillary's win and continue to play things as if the race is neck and neck and a statistical tie.

That's the way they want it ... it's about ratings.

Deal is ... it's over. Been over.

To make it official Obama will hit the 50%+1 mark before June. Then the SDs will roll over and pledge for Obama; they will not go against the will of the people.

As for PA ... Obama will get more than 60 delegates, but less than 70.

So, put me down for 65 for Obama. Then on to Indiana and North Carolina and out of Appalachia!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. Can you convert "65" to a percentage spread in PA? See chart in OP.

[Khaotic]

65. Here ya go

Hillary 59, Obama 41

[emilyg]

18. Clinton - 9

[taught_me_patience]

19. H56 - O44

Clinton by 12. It will be enough for her campaign to soldier on to NC where it will end.

[ecstatic]

20. Gosh I have no idea! A tie? nt

[Buzz Clik]

22. Hillary wins big. 100% of the vote.

She will then have more than 4000 delegates and will be crowned the Democratic nominee.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Isn't that what Saddam won by in his last election?

[Buzz Clik]

36. Saddam HUSSEIN?

Yes, that is correct.

And your point, sir?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

50. Sir? No point whatsoever - it was just a random thought that

flashed in my mind. I remember when he held elections and won with 100%

Go-bama !!!

[ColesCountyDem]

24. Clinton will net 8 delegates from PA. n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

27. so, like a 5 point spread.

[TexasLady]

26. okay it's more a 'hope' than a prediction but .5 Obama.

never know?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. thanks fellow Texan. I hope you are right - I'd love to sit there

all night with a too close to call deal !! there is NOTHING
worse than watching and hearing that music and seeing her
face flashed up there as a projected winner.

[TexasLady]

33. well after watching the Superbowl this past season

anything can happen!!!!

:hi:

[Avalux]

28. "Too Close to Call" all night; Obama squeaks out a win when all said and done.

Philly and Pittsburgh, newly registered voters deliver him the win. :bounce:

[Lucky 13]

29. Obama by 3

[oasis]

30. Hillary by 15. "Bittergate" will prove to be Obama's "Dean Scream".

;-)

[Spider Jerusalem]

32. Clinton by 8-10%.

I'd like to be wrong on this, but that's what I'm guessing.

[2rth2pwr]

34. Hillary by 16 points, the game has changed.

[elehhhhna]

37. game's changed to what? Loser wins?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. ROFLMAO !

[berni_mccoy]

35. Clinton by 2

[Lone_Star_Dem]

38. I'm going to go with Clinton. Margin: 12. Gain: 18

I'm not really that solid in my feelings on it though. I feel it's going to be Hillary by between 7-12%. We'll know for sure tomorrow.

[DerekJ]

39. c: 52 (or 53) O: 47

[NC_Nurse]

40. Obama by 2 points.

Just a wild guess, but what the hell. }(

What fabulous gifts do I win?

[Skip Intro]

42. Clinton by double digits - 16 is my prediction.

[DearAbby]

43. Clinton by 8%................n/t

[PM7nj]

46. Clinton by 9. nt

[cloudythescribbler]

47. Hillary by UNDER 6 %, w/LESS than 10 delegate gain on Obama ---

which in turn doesn't stop Obama from the nomination (Obama will win big in NC) but continues this bleeding (maybe HRC thinking about 2012)

[Phoonzang]

49. Clinton by 8 then.....

...she spins it as a massive victory and the media buys it. The campaign goes on into the summer and the both continue to wail on each other. McCain bides his time, builds up cash and momentum, and wins in November.

2009- The supreme court is packed with two more 40 year old conservative judges. The bombing of Iran. Financial collapse of the United States.

[rainbow4321]

51. As much as I want an Obama blowout..I say HRC by 6

I know that anything less than HRC by 10 is a final nail in her coffin...

So I say HRC by 6.

[Kurovski]

52. Clinton by 3. (nt)

[usregimechange]

53. Hillary by 2%

[jab105]

54. Clinton by 8%

She declares huge victory, regain of momentum...more time to bash the shit out of Obama...again...

spiffy...

[Orsino]

55. I can only predict that I'll be surprised.

But I don't think Obama can win it.

[Tribetime]

56. the winner will have 1,326,673

[Laura PourMeADrink]

60. You are very cute ! I can see why you have a Colbert icon. !

[Bucky]

57. I predict an uncharted meteor will fall from the sky & put off the primary for 3 more weeks of fun!!

For reals!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

62. or maybe Paris Hilton will do something.

[Bucky]

64. "Maybe"?

[SaveAmerica]

58. Obama by 2

[rndmprsn]

59. Obama 52% v Clinton 48%

obama will take it slightly giving him a HUGE victory, ending the primary season...Philly urabn/suburbs, new registers, youth and crossovers will give obama the edge...fingers crossed

[peoli]

63. I say 50-50 tie.

[MadBadger]

66. Obama will win by 1 point, netting him two delegates.

[TexanDem]

67. my wild guess -- Clinton 53-48

But I hope it's Obama 55-45 :shrug:

[TexanDem]

69. lol on arithmetic :((( Clinton 52-48

[Jamastiene]

68. Dead Heat - Hilliary wins it by 2 points.

I believe it will be very close.

[DangerousRhythm]

70. Clinton by 12 points

I'll be very surprised if she gets less, not as surprised if she gets a little more, up to 15.

[FlyingSquirrel]

71. I'm inclined to agree with your prediction... 6%, possibly only 5%

So, 84-74 Clinton vs Obama,
or 83-75 Clinton vs Obama.

[malik flavors]

72. I'm gonna say...Clinton: 57 Obama: 43

[tekisui]

73. Hillary by 6%.

But, more importantly, not enough to proclaim herself, or the media to adopt "The Comeback Kid". Wednesday through Friday, a flood of Superdelegates, a great majority of them to Obama.

[nxylas]

74. I predict at least 5 more Official Prediction Threads

before 8pm tonight.

[Alexander]

75. Clinton: 52.5% / Obama: 47.5% - Clinton by 5%.

[butterfly77]

76. Obama by 7 points...

[Tatiana]

77. 54-46; Clinton nets 10-12 delegates. n/t

[featherman]

78. I'll play... Clinton wins 55-45%, 10 point margin

and the still unsettled primary race moves on to NC and IN and beyond. Without an Obama upset here, the race will continue until June 3. By then everybody has voted or caucused and the SD's will do what they do.

[featherman]

90. Ahem... I would like to point out that I am the winner

Unfortunately... I was hoping for single digits

Addendum: I see two others who predicted 10 points but things may change a bit and the "9 point" posters might get the prize

What is the prize by the way?

[TragedyandHope]

79. Clinton by 8

[David Zephyr]

80. Hillary wins by 10 points.

Scaring white voters about the "black man who is friend with terrorists" will work for her although she should be ashamed of her "victory".

[Texas Hill Country]

81. margin 12.

[KansasVoter]

82. Hillary by 10, just like Ohio! n/t

[dbmk]

83. Hillary wins by 4%

Giving her 4 delegates.

[Shakespeare]

84. Hillary by 6% n/t

[Joanne98]

85. Clinton margin 3

[backscatter712]

86. Real count: Clinton 52, Obama 48. After Dieboldification: Clinton 62, Obama 38.

We all know there's a hell of a lot of shady shit going on in Pennsylvania.

[Dr Fate]

87. A wild guess- Hillary by a hair. n/t

n/t

[Bodhi BloodWave]

88. I'm gonna say it will be 54-46 in Hillary's favor(hoping for him winning by 1%) n/t

[JFN1]

89. Obama will win PA by less than 5%

My guess...