*****OFFICIAL DU PA PREDICTION THREAD***Record your Guess! [View All]

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Mine:
Clinton will win by 6 points, netting her a gain of 10 delegates (against
a current Obama lead of 141)

Methodology: Factored in historic median error rates for each recent
pollster in each direction. Came up with a range of Obama winning
by .9375% to Clinton winning by 11.06%. Took the average of that
and came up with a 6 pt Clinton win. In other words, just like
everyone else, I pulled it out of my ass.

DU WINNERS WILL BE ANNOUNCED TOMORROW !

DELEGATES

Clinton Margin: 4
Clinton Delegate Gain: 6

Clinton Margin: 6
Clinton Delegate Gain: 10

Clinton Margin: 8
Clinton Delegate Gain: 12

Clinton Margin: 10
Clinton Delegate Gain: 16

Clinton Margin: 12
Clinton Delegate Gain: 18

Clinton Margin: 14
Clinton Delegate Gain: 22

Clinton Margin: 16
Clinton Delegate Gain: 26

Current Obama Delegate Lead: 141
LIKELY OUTCOME: 141 - 10 = 131



LINKS:
Using Delegate Calculator:
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278 /