So, Was I Right About Tim Kaine's Chances Or What?!?!

[BamaLefty]

*Must win every county won by John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential Election

*Must win Fairfax County by 12% or more

*Must win Abermarle County by 5-7% (Strong Charlottesville/UVA turnout)

*Must win Roanoke city by 5% or more

*Must turn one of the "red", south central, rural counties blue. These counties are: Henry, Halifax, Mecklenberg, and Prince Edward.

* And then, the obvious: Strong African-American turnout, motivated Democrats, growing anti-Republican/Bush sentiment, people voting with their head screwed on properly!
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Won every county won by Kerry/Edwards in 2004 presidential race? Check.

Won Fairfax County by 12% or more? Check. He won it by a whopping 60-38%!

Won Abermarle County by 5-7%? Check. Kaine won easily again here as well, 61-37%.

Won Roanoke (city)? Check. Kilgore was crushed here, 62-36%.

Won at least 1 of the following SOVA counties (Henry, Halifax, Mecklenberg, and Prince Edward)? Check. Kaine carried both Henry and Prince Edward counties.

Anti-Bush sentiment? Check. Thanks Dubya for stumping for Kilgore. I'm sure that really won him a lot of votes!!

And finally, I wanna congratulate all you great Virginia DUers for sending a message last night to the nation and allowing a Dem to secede a Dem in a crimson red state. Keep it up... because Virginia just got a whole lot bluer last night and could be the "bellcow state" for the Democratic party to turn the South blue. Congrats guys, and good luck to that Warner fella (;)), I have a feeling he is going to be a heavy hitter in the 2008 presidential race. Take care.

Original thread: "If Kaine Doesn't Get This... He Loses"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=183&topic_id=2384&mesg_id=2384

[underpants]

1. Very good

:thumbsup:

[swimboy]

2. This is true. When I saw Prince Edward County I thought

Goddamn! BamaLefty nailed it! :toast:

[BamaLefty]

7. Glad To See I Was Thought Of

I didn't get to watch the results come in because I was having a cast taped over my 4 torn ligaments in my ankle in the ER. I collided with another player at basketball practice and came down on the ankle the wrong frikkin way. Yay me!

;)

[swimboy]

8. Ouch! Sorry about your injury.

I hope you're feeling better and all healed soon.

[BamaLefty]

9. Well, pain pills rock!

LOL

I'll be heading out to go to the Alabama/LSU game in a couple of minutes. No rest here, no sir'ree. A fans gotta do what a fans gotta do.

Thanks man.

[VaYallaDawg]

3. Good call, Bamalefty!

As Swimboy said - some of those places (PE, Albemarle etc.) can get very dicey and tough for a Dem. I had hoped Roanoke city would pull for Kaine but was really surprised at how lopsided his win there.

Now if we can just get him some support in the Gen. Assembly on the next election ....

[cosmicdot]

4. did you see this Virginian-Pilot spin on the Kaine win?

This is the banner headline of pilotonline.com
http://www.hamptonroads.com/pilotonline/

today, it reads: "GOP bastions helped Kaine win"

it's been modified since yesterday ... IIRC, it read
"GOP Power helped Kaine win"



The linked article is titled:

"Local bastions of GOP power helped Kaine win governorship"


~snip~

Consider Jean Mayes , a 75-year-old born-again Christian who opposes gay marriage and serves as the president of the Providence Square Civic League in Chesapeake. Her neighbors don’t like to talk about their votes, she said, but signage on the area’s streets showed that their political leanings were no mystery.

Mayes’ precinct, the Providence area, supported Kaine. In the final count, Kaine outpaced Kilgore 809 votes to 62.

She sees the victory as a backlash against the Republican Party, nationally and statewide.

“All Democrats are not sinners,” she said. “We’re Christians just like anybody else.”

~snip~

John McGlennon , a professor of government at The College of William and Mary, said many suburban voters – especially highly educated and affluent voters – feel uneasy about the social agenda of hard-core Republicans. That may have swayed many Republicans to vote for Kaine and led to wins in other large suburban areas, such as James City and Loudoun counties, neither of which Gov. Mark R. Warner carried four years ago.

~snip~

http://makeashorterlink.com/?L2493132C

if you get the sign-in page, go back and click the article link again
... it'll usually work ...

Other pilotonline.com stories:

(kinda had to hunt for the main story)
Kaine keeps Democratic hold on Virginia governor
http://makeashorterlink.com/?P2993232C

Voter turnout in Virginia governor’s race is low
http://makeashorterlink.com/?Z3592132C

Chart: The key to Kaine's victory
http://makeashorterlink.com/?X2696232C




Edited to add some Hampton Roads' city-by-city results.
Me thinks it was more than 'GOP power' that determined Kaine's win, i.e., Democratic Party power.


City of Norfolk:

Kaine 27,568 66.00%
Kilgore 12,853 30.77%
Potts 1,292 3.09%

City of Portsmouth:

Kaine 16,314 65.74%
Kilgore 7,926 31.94%
Potts 560 2.26%

City of Hampton:

Kaine 20,961 63.75%
Kilgore 11,078 33.69%
Potts 814 2.48%

City of Chesapeake:

Kaine 26,572 50.50%
Kilgore 24,677 46.90%
Potts 1,320 2.51%

City of Virginia Beach

Kaine 47,116 48.63%
Kilgore 46,469 47.96%
Potts 3,179 3.28%

City of Suffolk:

Kaine 10,479 53.73%
Kilgore 8,557 43.87%
Potts 456 2.34%

City of Newport News:

Kaine 21,743 57.41%
Kilgore 15,094 39.86%
Potts 992 2.62%


http://www.sbe.vipnet.org/nov2005/l_03.htm

[LocalDem]

5. Good Job, Bama!

And the "secede" instead of "succeed" bit actually works!
:yourock:

[ernstbass]

6. We love you here in Va Bama!!

You were on target as usual!!