Ohio Election Officials obstructing process to run out time on vote recoun

[berniew1]

NOT COUNTING THE VOTES Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.

As of election night there were 155,428 provisional ballots still to be counted in Ohio. The eagerly awaited Ohio recount cannot possibly begin until after the votes are counted for the first time.

It is now Friday, November 26, 2004. Twenty-four days have passed since the presidential election. There are 88 counties in Ohio. To my knowledge, only 13 have examined their provisional ballots, counted them, and posted the results on their websites. The 13 counties are: Ashland, Brown, Butler, Clinton, Geauga, Greene, Hancock, Montgomery, Pickaway, Preble, Tuscarawas, Union, and Warren.

Altogether, there were 23,873 provisional ballots issued in these 13 counties, or 15.36% of the statewide total. At this rate, it would take five months to count them all. This strikes me as a deliberate stalling tactic to delay the Ohio recount until after the electoral college meets in December.

Here are the unofficial results in the 13 counties, with the sum totals compared with those reported on election night, so as to compute the net gains:


ELECTION RESULTS AFTER COUNTING PROVISIONAL BALLOTS

County Bush Kerry Others Ballots Not Cast Counted

Ashland 16,171 8,555 234 25,739 779
Brown 12,647 7,140 105 20,281 389
Butler 109,866 56,234 696 168,976 2,180
Clinton 12,938 5,417 58 18,674 261
Geauga 29,974 19,588 205 51,286 1,519
Greene 48,377 30,530 361 80,602 1,334
Hancock 25,101 10,343 140 35,926 342
Montgomery 138,361 142,977 1,205 287,635 5,092
Pickaway 14,160 8,578 123 23,132 271
Preble 13,733 7,274 119 21,559 433
Tuscarawas 23,825 18,854 260 43,760 821
Union 15,869 6,665 96 22,911 281
Warren 68,035 26,043 337 95,512 1,097

Bush Kerry Others

Total 529,057 60.04% 348,198 39.51% 3,939 0.45%
Earlier 516,376 60.18% 337,902 39.38% 3,753 0.44%
Net Gain 12,681 54.75% 10,296 44.45% 186 0.80%

John F. Kerry is actually gaining on George W. Bush as the counting of provisional ballots proceeds. In counties that Kerry lost by 20.8% on election night, he is losing by only 10.3% among the provisional
ballots counted. In the 75 counties yet to be heard from, Kerry actually held a lead on election night:


ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS

Bush Kerry Others

88 counties 2,796,147 2,659,664 25,993
13 counted 516,376 337,902 3,753
75 uncounted 2,279,771 2,321,762 22,240


There are 208,696 uncounted ballots in these 75 counties, including 131,555 provisional ballots, and 77,141 regular ballots, mostly punch cards, which will have to be examined by hand during the recount. For a county by county breakdown of the uncounted votes,
read “JOHN KERRY CONCEDED TOO SOON” at

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/uncounted.htm

Half of these uncounted votes, 104,748 (50.19%) are in 9 counties, 8 of which were won by John Kerry.

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/summary.htm

There are also 14,799 ballots still uncounted in the other 13 counties, according to the table above. No wonder Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell is trying to slow down the counting of provisional ballots, and trying to delay the recount until after
he certifies the winner. There needs to be a firestorm of protest to cause him to recuse himself, or a restraining order issued by the courts.

[Ninga]

1. Hello BernieW...welcome to DU from

an NE Ohioan......

A big smile for you!!!

Please check out Ohio in the State Forum.

I was an Cuyahoga County Board of Elections witness for the Provisional Ballot certification process. Dora Rose was working on the certification 2 weeks ago when I witnessed.

[ooglymoogly]

2. does anyone see anything but a big fat chance that the courts are going to

be an honest arbiter in this.

[benddem]

3. Concession is just a formality

it doesn't mean a thing if Kerry is found to win. Of course we can expect more of the same crap we were subjected to after FL 2000.
Blackwell is running around saying "the ballots have been counted and recounted it is time to move on." Deja vu all over again same thing Jim Baker kept crowing in 2000.

[berniew1]

4. Kerry will win Ohio Recount if the Process is Fair

. My understanding is that the 93,000 figure is undervotes, not spoiled ballots, which includes overvotes. If someone has information to the contrary, please let me know. I also understand that Ohio law is very unfavorable to overvotes.

Second, my math doesn't include the usual "errors" and "mistakes" that get made, almost invariably in favor of the Republican. Who'da thunk it? Or "machine errors" in Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties (I believe there are potentially a lot of votes in Franklin, because the turnout numbers seem very off in several precincts in Columbus, including where I worked on Election Day, and I've heard similar questions raised in Cleveland as well). So I don't think that my analysis is anything approaching a best case scenario, but a reasonable middle ground.

Bottom line: is this a 100-1 shot? NO WAY . Is it a slam dunk for our guy? Similarly, absolutely not. If I had to lay odds right now, I'd say it's 50-50. If that sounds chickenshit, sorry; but I bet it's better odds than you thought when you woke up today. ;-)

Update: OK, based on some comments (not the love notes, but some other ones), another math exercise is in order.

I assumed 90% of the provisionals and 90% of the undervotes would count. A number of posts (not the trolls, just the pessimists -- nothing wrong with that, just not who I am) said I was too optimistic. OK, fair enough -- let's try a different math problem.

Let's say only 70% of the provisionals count -- a bit higher than the 2/3 being reported in Cleveland -- but let's go with it. 70% of 155,000 is 108,500. Let's assume 90% are for Kerry (there's no reason to question that right now -- they are what they are, after all). That would mean 97,650 votes for Kerry and 10,850 votes for Bush, a lead for Kerry of 86,800. Subtracting that from Bush's current lead of 132,000 yields a Bush lead of 45,200.

Now we move on to the undervotes. If 90% is too high for the number to be counted (unlike provos , there is a standard and a history to go with it), let's use 80% instead, to be conservative (no pun intended). 80% of 93,000 is 74,400. Use the same percentage (80%) for Kerry (again, no reason to change here -- the ballots are what they are). 59,520 votes for Kerry, 14,880 for Bush, a net of 44,640. So now the lead for Bush is 560 votes -- gee, isn't that really close to 537? And remember, we haven't even touched the other aspects of a recount (some overvotes may count, not as many as we'd like, and who knows what may be under those voting machine rocks when they get turned over in the recount). WE ARE STILL IN THE GAME.

If you think I'm wrong, please tell me. Don't shout at me, don't insult me; tell me, show me. I'm an optimist, I can't help it, it's who I am. You pessimists out there, poke holes in my balloon. A few have tried, and I've tried to respond. It's your move. Have at it. I'm ready for ya.

Update : Last update. In comments, ineedalife, after calling me a "rube," then said my calculations were "naive." So just for him, here's a worst-case scenario.

Only 70% of the provisionals get counted. That's 108,500 votes. Kerry gets 85% rather than 90%. That's 92,225 for Kerry and 16,275 for Bush. Lead for Bush is now 56,050.

On the undervotes, only 70% get counted, and they break for Kerry 70-30 rather than 80-20. Of the 93,000 undervotes, that's 45,570 for Kerry and 19,530 for Bush, knocking the lead down by another 26,040 votes.

The lead is now 30,010 votes, with the recount still to go. Overvotes. Machine errors. Shenanigii (love that word). Absentees (at least some, from what I can tell). The margin will narrow further, maybe completely.

OK, so Bush wins by 5,000 votes. Or 10,000. Does that make you feel worse than you do now, or better? And remember, this is clearly the WORST CASE; it could easily get a lot better. Take that mandate and shove up Dick Cheney's ass. Fuck mandate, it's more like 2000 Redux. I feel better. Don't you?

Jonathan S. Shurberg [e-mail] is a self-employed trial attorney residing with his wife and two children in Silver Spring, MD. He has been licensed as an attorney since 1991, and has operated his own law practice in Silver Spring since 1996, concentrating in the areas of criminal defense and personal injury. Active in Democratic politics since 1982, he has been a strong supporter of progressive and Democratic causes, most recently serving as a volunteer attorney for the Kerry-Edwards Election Protection program in Columbus, Ohio on Election Day 2004.

[lessthanjake]

5. You are wrong

Too optimistic. Kerry IS NOT going to get 90% of provisional ballots. At the best i am thinking 70%.

[CementDude]

6. Bernie - No reason to assume, we already know that..

..the following statement you made is, unfortunately, no longer a possibility:

"Let's assume 90% are for Kerry (there's no reason to question that right now -- they are what they are, after all)."


Here are the numbers so far for provisional votes:

65 of 88 counties have reported.
Current % of provisionals being counted: 77%
Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +36,050
Kerry +32,490


So as you can clearly see, there aren't enough provisionals left to help Kerry in any significant way. You assumed that out of the 155,000 provisionals, that after 30% were eliminated for various reasons, that Bush would only get 10-16K (you cite two calculation) - BUT - we already know Bush has a 36,050 vote gain after 65/88 counties have been counted!

So you need to look at the existing numbers and try again.

Look here and scroll down for more info on county-by-county provisional returns: http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/