Reply #6: Bernie - No reason to assume, we already know that.. [View All]

[CementDude]

..the following statement you made is, unfortunately, no longer a possibility:

"Let's assume 90% are for Kerry (there's no reason to question that right now -- they are what they are, after all)."


Here are the numbers so far for provisional votes:

65 of 88 counties have reported.
Current % of provisionals being counted: 77%
Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +36,050
Kerry +32,490


So as you can clearly see, there aren't enough provisionals left to help Kerry in any significant way. You assumed that out of the 155,000 provisionals, that after 30% were eliminated for various reasons, that Bush would only get 10-16K (you cite two calculation) - BUT - we already know Bush has a 36,050 vote gain after 65/88 counties have been counted!

So you need to look at the existing numbers and try again.

Look here and scroll down for more info on county-by-county provisional returns: http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/