2006 Wheat and Corn Crops in Jeopardy…Higher Prices at Checkout

[The Whiskey Priest]

Lack of rain and unusual warm weather are now taking a toll on the nation’s wheat and corn production. The bread basket of the nation is undergoing an extreme drought and unseasonable warm weather. It is also reported that the drought is affecting the cattle industry as cattlemen are selling off stocks due to the loss of pasturing for their herds. Bottom line, the prices for food is perched ready for substantial increases, in particular milk, bread and other grain related products.

The drought is not predicted to end anytime soon. NOAA is at a loss to make a prediction of which way the weather will go over the next 12 months, but its tentative short-term prediction is for intensification of the drought.



http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10004777.shtml

[chat_noir]

1. ...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.html

[Angry Girl]

3. The Water Wars are coming.... (article on Canada-US water problem)

....Officially, the U.S. government says it's not interested in Canadian water. But many believe the issue will soon break into the open.

Maclean's magazine recently ran a cover story arguing that Canada should sell its water "before they take it."

<SNIP>

U.S. water shortages are becoming critical. Flow in the Colorado River, which feeds the Las Vegas Valley, dropped by almost half between 2000 and 2005 due to successive droughts. Yet Canada has major water problems of its own.

Continued...
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Special/2005/2006/01/01/pf-1375372.html

[GreenPartyVoter]

5. Thanks for posting that.

[Ilsa]

40. We are already experiencing water war politics in some parts of

texas. I think Clayton williams tried to buy up alot of water rights a few years ago. Cities are fighting over water rights. it could get ugly sooner rahter than later.

[liberal N proud]

7. Could we have a dust bowl coupled with a sinking economy?

All we would need to finish the job would be a stock market crash.

1929!

[phantom power]

8. Both the crash and the drought may be worse this time.

[The Whiskey Priest]

14. A very good book is out now on the dust bowl

The Worst Hard Times.....Timothy Egan

He ends the book looking at the depredation of the Ogallala Aquifer and postulates the ramifications for the Southern High Plains.

[MountainLaurel]

67. I wonder to what extent

This chart is related to the article from the NYT that Kellogg, Brown, and Root got a $385 million federal contract to build temporary detention centers for immigration and other purposes as deemed necessary.

:hide:

[Angry Girl]

2. Interesting

Naturally I didn't see squat about this in the U.S. media.

Add this to the big hit the sugar industry took from Katrina and you are starting to stir up memories of WWII, with the rationing of meat, flour, and sugar. Amerika lives for carbs. This will not go down well.

[benburch]

4. Worse problems than that.

A crop failure here means famine elsewhere.

And remember Incurious George's alcohol fuel program? Where is that corn going to come from?

[Angry Girl]

12. Monsanto.

Control the people's food, and you control their lives.
Apparently they're wanting to make their suicide seeds mandatory for Iraqi farmers.... Just like they're pushing in India. Massive genocide potential.

[The Whiskey Priest]

15. Very good point

The non-patented seeds are nearly extinct.

[benburch]

28. Fortunately they have been preserved...

And it would take only a few summers to resurrect them in seed-market quantities.

Some people saw this coming.

[MadHound]

32. No, they're not, they're alive and well

And sprouting like crazy. A little known movement has been drifting under the agribusiness radar for the past thirty five years, heirloom plants and seed savers. There have been many good ol' boy farmers who hung on to and nurtured many of the old time strains of common fruits and vegetables. These non-hybrid, non-GM plants were handed from one generation to another in families across the country. The first organized attempt to gather these seeds in one place was the Seed Savers Exchange, founded in 1975. <http://www.seedsavers.org/> A non-profit organization, it propelled the movement forward.

During the ninties, with the rising threat of Frankenfoods, the heirloom movement got a huge boost, and became an ever growing cottage industry. And now, with more and more strange crap entering our food supply, the "heirloom" label is starting to become as important to people as the "organic" label is. The cottage industry is now becoming mainstream, as more and more small heirloom seed sellers are going mainstream. And as the demand grows, more and more old heirloom plants are being discovered in out of the way nooks and crannies, and are now making a comeback. A perfect example of this is Osage Garlic. Osage Garlic is an absolute joy of a garlic plant. Not a hard garlic flavor, it was prized for its taste and hardiness by many people during the 19th century. With the rise of various hybrid strains, it was lost and almost forgotten until a fortunate horticulturist found a patch of it growing wild in Mid Mo. It was taken in, and nurtured to the point where it is now being offered for sale for the first time in well over a hundred years. And this spring, I'm planting it in my garden, with my other heirloom produce.

If you want to check out more on heirloom seeds, check out the Seed Savers link above, or these:
<http://www.heirloomacres.net/HeirloomAcres/>
<http://www.heirloomseeds.com/>

[The Whiskey Priest]

35. What about the major food and feed crops

wheat, corn, soybeans?

[MadHound]

42. Here's a link here to one source

<http://www.localharvest.org/store/seeds.jsp> And I'm sure that there are many more out there. The Heirloom Acres link I put in earlier has several varieties of heirloom corn. I'm looking forward to trying out the Country Gentleman variety this year.

[SmokingJacket]

41. Thanks for the link; now I know where I'm getting my seeds this year. nt

[earth mom]

44. Thanks for the links!

Found this:

Seed Savers retail locations:

http://www.seedsavers.org/retaillocations.asp

[druidity33]

45. if only...

it could be that simple. Please google Percy Schmeiser and his lawsuit in Canada. It may not affect the home gardener as much but it can MOST CERTAINLY affect (already has?) the small scale farmers and "agribusiness" here. GM seeds cross pollinate with heirloom/organic crops and render the organic farmers crop useless. On top of that Monsanto (or whoever) can sue for theft of proprietary technology. Seeds can travel miles in the wind and via other paths. Unfortunately, Schmeiser's case has exhausted all appeals (been to Canadian Supreme Court) and he barely managed to avoid bankruptcy. Monsanto and other seed tech companies have for years been farming "small" experimental plots of crops all over the country. They NEVER tell the public when they do that and sometimes don't even tell the farmer. New 'Round-Up Ready' plants are often the desired product. (If you don't know what that is, it is an herbicide designed to kill any plant without a resistant gene to it... short, clumsy answer) Then what they do is spray the fields with this herbicide... to see if their new seed "can take it". Invariably they "overspray" or "unintentionally" spray another farmers fields within a few miles and if that farmers crop lives, it is consider theft by that farmer. Absurd, yes... but easy to "prove" if you are a multi-billion dollar corporation with shitloads of lawyers aiming to bankrupt a local/organic/family farmer. Again, they NEVER tell the public when they do that and sometimes don't even tell the farmer. I hope we can follow the EU example and ban all GM food crops and limit testing and usage of said plants otherwise. At the very least people should consider FOOD SECURITY and WATER SECURITY important issues.

i too will plant a garden his year.




(edited for spelling oops.)

[MadHound]

50. I'm fully cognizant of what is going on with GM foods

And how those crops can contaminate another farmer's crops, etc. I live in farming country, and this is one of the larger topics discussed. And while there is little one can do if you are a large scale farmer, there is plenty to do if you're a small scale farmer, or home gardener.

Namely what you need to do is pollinate your own plants as soon as possible. Once you pollinate your plants, they can't be pollinated by GM crops.

And while there have been some setbacks regarding this issue, it is far from cut and dried, and there are still many court cases to come on this issue. Here's hoping justice and common sense will prevail.

[BronxBoy]

63. I just signed on with Seed Savers

Great Resource

[Armstead]

6. Oh goody -- Another punch to the pocketbook

[applegrove]

9. Jesus.

[Blue Belle]

10. Bush won't start to officially WORRY about this problem...

until it effects the amount of Johnny Walker Blue he gets to have on his morning cereal.

[phantom power]

11. Sad, we have to read about this from Ireland.

[elehhhhna]

13. God help us find enough corn syrup to get through it...

[The Stranger]

16. " . . . unseasonable warm weather . . . "

Try saying "global warming"!

:rofl:

[The Whiskey Priest]

18. We need some more study on that question.....

when we are in Iowa and standing knee deep in the ocean because the ice caps have melted, then we might have some hard facts.

[dysfunctional press]

17. I can't eat starch- so it don't matter to me.

nt

[The Whiskey Priest]

19. Do you eat chicken or pork.......

Without corn or grains chickens and pigs do not exist..........at least enough to feed the nation......egg McMuffins would only be...well the wrapper.

[benburch]

21. Yummy paper!

But even pulpwood farms need rain.

[King Coal]

24. I think that's the Whiskey talkin'.

[The Whiskey Priest]

26. ad hominem is not rebuttal.......

n/t

[King Coal]

33. Add hominem and you've got posole.

[dysfunctional press]

31. not so much actually...

i'm more of a fish/fresh fruit/veggies kinda person. witth the occasional delmonico or ny strip.

and before you ask- i tend toward the veggies that are lower in starch(rule of thumb- the farther you get from the root, the less starch content) to begin with, and eat mostly raw- and when you don't soften the cellulose by cooking, your digestive system can't get at the starch, and vice-versa.

and when it comes to breakfast at mickey d's- i go for the steak-egg-and-cheese bagel...but i don't eat the bagel.

[benburch]

38. All of which means that this effects your foods too.

See my discussion, just below, on "less preferred good."

[dysfunctional press]

58. i don't think that this rises to the level of famine, tho...

Americans by and large are very lazy, as well as set in their ways- they'll be able to get their most preferred foods- they just might have to pay a bit more.

also- i tend to be a good shopper- i go to a produce store near me for vegetables- a lot of the stuff isn't as pretty as the stuff that goes to the uber-market, but it's the same food, just as fresh, and the price is cheaper.
and when i do go to the uber-market, i let the sales determine what i buy, not my appetite at the moment...also, at our uber-store- if the price rings up incorrectly, the item is free- so i watch the register like a hawk, and end up with a freebie at least one out of every 4 trips...and someday i plan to get more serious about using coupons- maybe this grain thing will be the impetus i need.

i guess what i'm trying to say is that people can adapt and change their habits if need be, rather than freak out about a possible temporary disruption in their preferred food chain.

btw- do you realize that starch is not really even a natural part of the human diet? and yet it's what makes up the bulk of the diets of most americans...and we wonder why we're so obese, nationally.

[The Whiskey Priest]

60. Per Bak's Theory of Power

Always calls into question the stability and reaction of every system, so you never know the magnitude of the response to stimuli or catalyst.

[benburch]

64. We'll see.

America has (temporarily) the economic ability to buy food on world markets, so no, not famine here, just very high prices, but that food comes from a market that only has a couple of percentage points of surplus, so it means famine elsewhere.

[The Whiskey Priest]

65. That is a reasonable assessment

my point was speaking to the complexity of any system and the uncertainty in trying to predict the magnitude of reaction of the system in response to change.

[benburch]

68. And you are right there.

Most complex systems exist in metastable equilibrium. Small changes can force them into large fluctuating excursions following which they find another metastable point, perhaps not quickly.

[dysfunctional press]

66. I think that ADM is just jealous of the profits being made-

by the likes of Exxon, KBR, Boeing etc...and as long as everyone els'e pie is being made higher- they want their taste too.

[benburch]

20. It sure does.

All food prices rise in a famine.

This is an effect economists put under "less preferred good". When the goods you like to buy become too expensive, the demand often shifts to a "less preferred good" that is still affordable, increasing demand for it, and hence prices. If the "less preferred good" is, in normal times, in small demand, this can cause its price to soar even beyond the price of the preferred good due to the inefficiencies of the market. If you MUST consume the "less preferred good" you can wind up in a situation where stockpiles of it are decimated and you are paying nearly black market prices.

[tridim]

22. Up until now food staples have remained relatively cheap

Not any more. This is going to kill the poor, literally and figuratively.

[benburch]

23. And food stamps will NOT go up to match. nt

[The Whiskey Priest]

25. Add the current climate dilemma and the peak production of petroleum

And we have a problem of global proportion……petroleum is the linchpin of the green revolution…pesticides, synthetic fertilizer and power for mechanized farming. Taken altogether it has increased food production throughout the world. We have a problem.

[Deb]

27. This and bush's cuts in the new Farm Bill

will cost the farmers, consumers and businesses alike. Dairy looks to be hit pretty hard by the cuts. This farm kid already stocked up on cornmeal for this year... just saying.

Here are some of the cuts that will trickle down onto buyers -
http://www.ilfb.org/viewdocument.asp?did=11194&r=0.1488459

There was also talk of including more farm products into the commodities market.

[Angry Girl]

56. The dairy farmers should have expected this

I guess they voted for Bush and now's the payback for dancing with the devil...

USDA Manipulating Dairy Policy for Bush Votes?
Mixing milk and politics; USDA official criticized for linking policy, Bush votes

A senior economist in the U.S. Department of Agriculture has come under fire
from Democrats and government watchdogs for suggesting that the Bush
administration could maximize votes in key dairy states by keeping milk
prices high through the election.

Larry Salathe, a 27-year veteran of the USDA, also suggested that his agency
would hold off on policies that could anger dairy farmers--including
proposing a new milk tax on them and eliminating a price support
program--until after the election.

Continued...
http://www.organicconsumers.org/corp/milkvotes092804.cfm

[femrap]

29. There's a bumper sticker that reads......

EAT THE RICH!

[benburch]

36. Ewww... Have you seen what they EAT.

Best to render them for soap fat, and feed the rest to the swine.

[Lorien]

30. Climate change also means starvation-NOT just warmer/ cooler

weather and rising sea levels.

The weather patterns are changing, and massive deforestation around the globe means long lasting droughts, with some smaller areas of extreme flooding (even the Amazon forest has been hit by an unprecedented drought this year). Al Gore and others have been sounding the alarm for decades-but few listen. Maybe if people start getting hit in the wallet they'll care-but then there's the partisan "scientists" who make up their own research on the topic and work with the MSM to create a disinformation campaign. No peer reviewed scientific article on climate change has EVER cast doubt that human activity is to blame. None. But 53% of MSM articles do-that from the newest Utne reader. It's time to demand the truth and corporate responsibility.

[MadHound]

34. Time to start growing your own food if you can

If you have two twenty by twenty foot squares of good dirt, with good sun, you can grow virtually all of the vegetables and grain that you need. Raised beds, group growing, rotating crops and cover corps will tide you through the year. Sure, it will take some work on your part, but it will save you an increasing amount of money, and will help ease the stress that modern agricultural practices place on our planet.

[benburch]

43. Problem comes when your town forbids outdoor watering.

Mind you, you can capture rinsewater from the laundry and the dishwaster and water the garden, but that might not be enough.

The issue here is not the amount of cultivated land, but the amount of water available for it.

[girl gone mad]

55. I don't know what a distwaster is...

but I think I want one.

That, and a well.

[MadHound]

62. Dig a cistern, capture the rainwater

That's what I'm doing. Even in dry years, you will capture a large amount of water. Rain barrels will do the same trick.

[SpiralHawk]

37. If you want to take positive action now, join a Community Farm

Be proactive. Insure a steady supply of clean food for your household. Take a positive step forward, and at the same time help maintain an oasis of environmental radiance in the community where you live.

More on CSA (Community Supported Agriculture).

http://www.chiron-communications.com/farms.html

[benburch]

39. Without rain...

no community farm has produce.

That is the core of the problem; Human-caused climate change means that we don't have rain.

[SpiralHawk]

46. Hey, that's when we do the Community Rain Dance

get your feathers on...

[benburch]

48. As a ritual magician and long-time pagan...

...I can tell you that one should never depend on a rain dance.

[SpiralHawk]

51. Listen, Ben, the drums, they are calling you to the dance...

Your little wind-blown clouds
your thin wisps of clouds
your great masses of clouds
replete with living waters,
you will send forth to stay with us,
your fine rain caressing the earth.

Send forth your massed clouds to stay with us.
Stretch out your water hands,
let us embrace.

-Zuni

[benburch]

54. I can drum up a storm...

but that doesn't mean it's gonna rain.

[The Whiskey Priest]

49. How about a Ghost Dance

to see if we can get high paying manufacturing jobs to come back?

[Angry Girl]

57. The principles of hydroponics need to be taught

or, rather, re-learned, along with water conservation.

[opihimoimoi]

47. This was predicted a long time ago...shortages of water/topsoil/ferts/etc

and what to do/solve never ever made it to the Bushies Ear...Hence, eat shit and we all fuckin die...

Poor Bush, all that Power and Nowhere to go....what a loss...

[hatrack]

52. 1/31 Drought Monitor - not looking terribly encouraging

EDIT

The High Plains and Northern Great Plains: Dry and unseasonably warm conditions again dominated the region, with only a few scattered locations reporting any measurable precipitation. This is typically a dry time of year for the region, so in general areas of dryness and drought were unchanged from last week; however, a few areas of deterioration were noted. D1AH expanded into parts of the west-central and Big Bend regions of Texas, where Lubbock, TX experienced a record 95 th consecutive day without measurable precipitation on January 30, 2006. Farther north, slightly below normal precipitation has been exacerbated by generally windy and warmer than normal weather for the past couple of months. For instance, temperatures at North Platte, NE topped 60°F during a record 9 days in January 2006, exceeding their previous record by 50%. These conditions prompted the expansion of D0AH conditions into eastern Colorado and most of central and western Kansas. Elsewhere, D1AH and D2AH conditions expanded slightly in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, and D1H conditions stretched southward to include areas along the Nebraska/Kansas border, where a number of locations reported near-record low streamflows as January ended.

The Southern and East-Central Great Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley: For the first time in many weeks, widespread moderate to heavy precipitation fell on many of the areas experiencing extreme to exceptional drought. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain fell on a broad swath from central Texas northeastward through eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and southernmost Missouri while 0.5 to locally 2.0 inches were measured across adjacent areas. Both Dallas, TX and Waco, TX received more than 1.5 inches of precipitation on January 28, 2006, which was more than their totals for the previous 88 days combined. However, because of the duration and severity of the drought in these areas, conditions improved only modestly. The D4AH region receded from its southern and northeasternmost reaches, and conditions improved to D2AH in relatively small parts of north-central and south-central Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, adjacent northeastern Texas, and a small part of central Texas. In addition, the northern extents of D0AH to D2AH conditions in south-central Missouri and adjacent Arkansas retreated slightly southward.

Farther east, similarly widespread moderate to heavy precipitation fell on western Tennessee, the eastern fringes of Arkansas, central Alabama, and most of Mississippi and Louisiana away from the Gulf Coast. These amounts fell on areas that have experienced several wet spells during the past few weeks, so improvement was a bit more robust than in areas farther west. In general, last week’s D0AH to D1AH conditions improved by 1 category, ending abnormal dryness in most of western Tennessee, extreme eastern Arkansas, northwestern and upper southern Mississippi, and northeastern Louisiana.

In contrast, only scattered light and isolated moderate precipitation totals were reported in the central Kansas and Oklahoma, southern Texas, and the central Gulf Coast region. As a result, D0AH to D3AH conditions in these areas expanded slightly.

EDIT

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[phusion]

53. Will Bourbon production be hindered?!?!

EEK!

:scared:

[porphyrian]

59. I thought we paid farmers not to grow wheat and corn, we grow so much.

Not that I doubt that prices will rise given this or any excuse, but don't we grow so much corn and wheat that we pay farmers not to grow it?

[benburch]

61. I don't believe corn and wheat get that treatment.

Tobacco we pay people not to grow. That I know. I'll check on this some time today.

[benburch]

69. I'm unable to find this information.

Anybody know where it could be?