SCantiGOP
SCantiGOP's JournalI think Sanders will surprise people tomorrow in SC
This is based on years of working campaigns here and conversations with Democrats all over the state.
Perhaps the strongest reason, and a significant factor in my final decision earlier this week to vote for Sanders, has to do with my kids.
I have three grown children, all married and ranging in age from 23 to 39. One intends to vote for Buttigieg, one for Warren and four for Sanders. They all say that a majority of their contemporaries who are Democrats are supporting Sanders. For the record, we are a white, middle class family that has been in SC for three generations, and there's not a Republican in the immediate family.
The strongest age demographic for Democrats are young voters. They are natural supporters of Democrats, but they are also not likely to show up to vote unless they are motivated. When we have candidates that can appeal to this group and to minorities we outvote the shrinking pool of angry old white folks that put Trump in the White House.
I hope to bid a farewell to
Mr Steyer, Mr Bloomberg and Ms Gabbard in about 36 hours.
Tulsi, you can go ahead and audition for your FOX reader job. Tom and Mike, please keep spending the big bucks to go after the Orange Menace.
"How likely are you to vote for President Trump?"
When my daughter received this automated call, her response was, “I would rather be a Chinese doorknob licker.”
Two SC voters make a decision - finally
Two months ago I had a Biden sticker on my car, and my wife had a Warren sticker. While I initially selected Biden as my DU preference, I have struggled with deciding who I would vote for when February 29 finally arrived.
My wife and I are both active in SC Democratic affairs, so we typically wait until the final debate before the primary to make our final decision, since by then we would have attended several events and met with or at least attended an event involving most of the candidates. As of this week we have both decided to support Bernie Sanders.
For anyone interested, we have two basic reasons:
1- For the past decade or so we have agreed with more of Sanders positions and basic ideology than any other candidate, but had never voted for him because of the "electability" issue. This was one factor in our active support for Hillary in 2016, and it kept leading us to Biden and/or Warren this time.
We now believe that Sanders is probably the candidate best poised to beat Trump. This is a result of talking to other Democrats from around the state, and from one poll (perhaps insignificant, I can't vouch for its methodology) that I came across a few weeks back. When asked whether Sanders could beat Trump, more than 60% said No. When these same people were asked who they intended to vote for, it came out 47-43 Sanders. More moderate candidates and their supporters, and the Trump/Russia efforts, would all naturally want to feed into this "Bernie can't win" narrative and establish it as a foregone conclusion.
2- I have three grown children, all married and ranging in age from 23 to 39. One intends to vote for Buttigieg, one for Warren and four for Sanders. They all say that most of their contemporaries who are Democrats are supporting Sanders. For the record, we are a white, middle class family that has been in SC for three generations, but are strong Democrats, probably because of my career in government service and work for the State Party.
Two core constituencies of the Democratic party are minority voters and young voters. These two groups are among the strongest natural supporters of Democrats, but they are also two groups that may not show up to vote unless they are motivated. When we have candidates that can appeal to these groups we outvote the shrinking pool of angry old white folks that put Trump in the White House.
So, my DU preference at the bottom of the page has gone from Biden to Warren to Klobuchar, with a couple of Undecideds mixed in. Today it turned to Sanders, and that is who we will proudly vote for this Saturday.
How/why is Tulsi still at 1% in the DU poll?
I've seen zero support for her, and there are only two entries in her forum - one is now listing Sanders as their preferred candidate and the other has posting privileges revoked.
I would have to think that some people checked her as a favorite some time back and don't hang out here anymore. I don't think she will drop out, even though she also polls at near zero in the general population, because her candidate status gets her the occasional interview on FOX or other outlets.
So, any Tulsi supporters out there?
A few observations about the South Carolina primary
I’ve been involved in SC Dem politics since the 70s. This is the first primary since 1992 where I haven’t been actively engaged with a candidate's primary campaign, but I have attended debates, gone to events for several candidates, and frequently speak to other Dem activists around the state.
A few observations:
This is by far the most confused and rapidly changing landscape I have ever seen. Even the 2004 campaign to stop W wasn’t this focused on “who can beat the GOP?” rather than “who is my favorite?”
Had the election been held the Saturday before Iowa, Biden would have won a majority over 50%. I think he would still ride out a first place finish today, but his trajectory is heading down quickly.
The wildcard in the race is Tom Steyer. I get 5-8 mailings from him every week, and my mail carrier says she has never seen a volume of mail like the volume he is paying for to blanket SC.
I had been surprised at how many enthusiastic supporters Yang had while he was in the race, and no one can figure out where they will end up. Many of his folks may be sitting this one out.
Bloomberg is definitely on the rise; his national TV ads are as pervasive as Steyer’s, but he is not on the ballot. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a notable write-in vote, maybe as high as 5%.
Sanders has the most loyal and unwavering base, but if he wins it will be a split decision like Iowa and NH, not a clear victory.
Klobuchar on the rise, Warren running out of steam. More of a reaction to the outcomes and coverage of the two contests so far rather than their policies.
While I have Klobuchar as my DU choice, I have had Biden twice and Warren twice as my favorite. I would vote for her today; in two weeks who knows?
How many candidates are left?
For real.
Biden is definitely still in, and Klobuchar has dark horse status, but it appears the current field is down to 5.
Is there an argument for any others to still be considered as contenders?
Trump: "I'm the only one that can do it."
He was right.
There was absolutely no one else who could have made Nixon look innocent, and Bush look intelligent.
(btw- stolen from someone on the internet this morning)
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Aiken, SC
Current location: Midlands of South Carolina
Member since: 2001
Number of posts: 13,869