June 15, 2021

Consumer Price Index hits record YoY increase, 6.6%

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/15/economy/producer-price-inflation-may/index.html

Not good. Joe needs to sit on the Fed and get them to start taking action to put the brakes on this. CPI is a lagging indicator, and spot data (commodity prices, real estate prices, etc) suggest this isn't slowing down.

Betting employers still think they're going to pat the employees on the head and tell them 2.5% is a good raise...

March 23, 2021

The reality on promoting a new weapons ban

I see a lot of frustration, justifiably so, after the recent shootings. Many seem to think with just a little coaxing, we can get a new assault weapons ban passed.

There are more obstacles than I think many here realize.

1) passing the House. Our margin is thin, and we are dependent on some reps from purple areas with a strong firearm tradition. It will likely be extremely tight getting to votes in our own party for it.

2) passing the senate. Getting 10 Republicans isn't happening, no matter how many shootings occur, so forget that avenue. That leaves ending the filibuster. Manchin is reluctant as is Sinema. I think we'll have more getting cold feet about it if the reasoning is to put a gun ban to a vote. I can see that only adding to Manchin and Sinema's reluctance. But also can see Warnock, Kelly, and even Hassan being wary of voting yes under those conditions with 2022 looming in their gun friendly states.

3) The courts. There are plenty of Trump judges who would throw an injunction and this would quickly hit the supreme court. Not only do we have to overcome a 6-3 conservative majority, there is also the matter of the Heller decision. The 08 Heller decision indicated that guns that are in common use are constitutionally protected for ownership. This gives them a tailor made excuse to strike it down. This common use challenge to assault weapons bans has not been heard by the court yet, but could easily tear down not only a future national ban but many existing state controls.

Se will call this defeatism, it's just realism. The cards are not in our favor for pushing a ban at the time. Senator Coons pretty much said this recently, indicating that on gun control passing a small bill is better than failing to pass a large one. We should listen and make background checks our focus, it's still progress. Sadly it's also still a long shot, but at least might have a slim chance.

January 6, 2021

congratulations all, we won! ... now it is time to temper expectations.

Expanding the courts? Adding states? sweeping climate change legislation? Banning assault guns? Universal Basic Income? Universal Healthcare?

Forget about all of these for at least two years.

We are 50/50 in the Senate.
We have an 11 seat advantage in the house (13 if we take both open seats).
We have control by the narrowest of margins.

A single defection in the Senate on a bill stops it; this means we needed all of our purple or red state Dems every time. Manchin, Tester, Sinema, Kelly, etc. Manchin and others are a no for removing the legislative filibuster, so reconciliation is just about our only vehicle for bills, which adds limits of its own.

Same for judicial nominations; expect moderate judges, not progressive activists.

We lost a lot of seats in the House, and some returning Representatives barely made it back. We can take 6 or 7 defections, but even that cannot be taken for granted anymore. Especially since the surprise Republican gains in Nov will have all of our at risk seatholders firmly focused on re-election for the next two years.

Is this meant for gloom and doom? No, we won! It is just a reminder that there is a lot of hard work ahead and we won't be able to get everything we want. However progress can once again be made, baby steps at a time.

We need to focus on the easily obtainable, the non-controversial.

○ Modest progress on climate change by softer measures like energy efficiency subsidies and tax credits.
○ Fixing our tax code (undoing Trump's giveaway to the rich) and getting the top few percent and Wall Street paying more to help the rest of us.
○ Prescription drug pricing reform
○ proper covid response and financial assistance

It also might not be a bad idea to use two specific themes that Trump exploited; promoting and encouraging American manufacturing, and also distancing from China. Sounds crazy, but hear me out.

Modern, highly automated manufacturing is the future. Manufacturing left the US so the companies could have higher profits from cheap labor overseas. Automation is becoming cheaper and more effective, eventually (especially with potential public opinion backlash) a tipping point will be reached where it makes sense to close the sweatshops and build new automated factories. Where would it make sense to build them? Close to the markets (cheaper / faster shipping) and in a location with a high tech base to support the technology used. In other words it really will make sense to bring manufacturing 'home' to the US - especially if we encourage it. This will also have a positive impact on climate change as cutting edge manufacturing has less waste and less pollution.

Distancing from China. This one is a no brainer to me; just look at how they treat people. Hong Kong, the Uighur people, Tibet, Mongolians, exploitation of Africa. Not to mention their hacking, spying, and intellectual property theft. We should be working to eliminate our co-dependence on them, they are not a government we should want to be close to.

November 3, 2020

March! The Day Has Come! From your head the crown is falling (Pump up music)

Was going to post this tomorrow morning but just too excited!

This was your final chance
A chance you didn’t take
Like the lightning we will fall on your golden world
This was your final dance
Your final reverence
Now on the horizon you can see our torches burning
No turning back, our army will attack
Your dynasty ends tonight
We are the army of silent cries
Marching on your denial
We are the justice for those who died
For the glory of Versailles
March!
The day has come
The unwanted are rising
March!
The day has come
And now the fates are changing
March!
The day has come
A new horizon shining
March!
The day has come
From your head the crown is falling
Hear the symphony
Of our liberty
Hundreds of voices resounding through the night
Pushed in the shadows
Away from your halo
We’ve been kept outside of your perfect paradise
We step into the light, of the moon tonight
History chose its side
March!
Today is the day my friends
March!
We’ll be free from our chains
March!
Have faith, justice we prevail
March!
Today, today we rewrite history
We are the army of silent cries
Marching on your your denial
We are the justice for those who died
For the glory of Versailles
March!
The day has come
The unwanted are rising
March!
The day has come
And now the fates are changing
March!
The day has come
A new horizon shining
March!
The day has come
From your head the crown is falling

November 2, 2020

what president Biden's first executive orders should be (not serious ones)

my pick:

Declaring that Chicago style pizza is not pizza but instead is a casserole

your suggestions? (though lets keep this light hearted please)

September 19, 2020

My take on the best possible outcome

Yes, there are better possibilities than this, I just don't see them as overly likely.

Senate moderates , especially those up for election, say no appointments before inauguration. Turtles make poor shepherds, and he can't round up his flock.

we end up with 50 or 51 seats. Keep in mind 2016 showed us how much conservatives are willing to hold their nose and vote with a supreme court seat on the line. A seat up in the air will probably put Georgia and Iowa Senate pickups out of reach.

Now we have the lame duck session. Trump, Mitch, and others will be beating the drum to fill it. We will be adamant it should not be filled. The same Senate 'moderates' will wish this would go away.

A deal is cut for the pubs not to fill it in exchange for no court packing and a relatively moderate selection by President Biden. Keep in mind that our control of the Senate is likely to be extremely narrow so packing the court or a very progressive selection would be difficult to get past Manchin, Tester, and Cunningham as they have purple or red state voters to answer to. Garland comes to mind as a compromise candidate.

Sounds absurd? Keep in mind with a nearly exactly divided Senate, both parties will be placing their most vulnerable members in a difficult spot with any aggressive strategy or controversial selections.

June 2, 2020

two looters dead in Philly last night

One shot attempting to loot a gun shop by the store owner (occurred inside the store)
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/south-philly-gun-shop-owner-shoots-kills-looter-police-say/2416373/

There was a string of ATM bombings last night in Philly as well
https://6abc.com/several-atms-vandalized-overnight-in-philly/6226433/

It appears the bomber messed up eventually and fatally blew himself up
https://www.fox29.com/news/police-man-24-dies-in-attempted-atm-explosion
(excuse the Fox article for the last one, only source I could find)

Sounds like some more serious thieves are using this unrest as cover. The group robbing the gunshop were armed and organized, and the ATM bomber is also not your common rioter.

May 10, 2020

The wheels seem to be coming off the quarantine in PA

Beaver county is allowing businesses to open in defiance of the stay at home order. Some other counties are making noise about following their example. Several county DA offices say they will not pursue charges against businesses violating the governor's orders.

Several county sheriff's departments say they won't take action against businesses over the quarantine.

Police are increasingly unwilling to cite for violations, endlessly just issuing verbal warnings or ignoring it completely.

Again, this all in purple or red parts of the state, I don't know if this is true in Philly/Pittsburgh.

Anyone else seeing growing defiance? I'm not talking about a handful of right-wing nut jobs protesting, I'm talking about in the mainstream.

At the beginning of April I posted repeatedly that we were 4 weeks or so from a social breaking point, and now it does seem to be beginning

May 4, 2020

Why is the far right so obsessed with the idea of our switching nominees?

I'm seeing this all over, it's bad enough that my wife asked me about it as her right-winger relatives are bloviating about it and flooding her Facebook feed.

Why do they think we are going to swap in someone who wasn't even running? When Bernie was the frontrunner, it was talk of a convention swap. Now it's claiming that Biden will drop out and the 'real' DNC pick will come forward.

They seem to be fixated on Hillary, Michelle Obama, or now Gov Cuomo being inserted.

I don't get it. I just don't. Is it because they know they cannot beat Joe?

April 4, 2020

How much longer can we keep things shut down?

I'm starting to see stay at home orders extended into May, and new infections do not seem to be declining.

Some businesses are putting together contingency plans for this running well into summer or fall. I don't think we can extend the lockdowns that far without economic collapse that no amount of stimulus will resolve.

I am starting to think the only way to get out of this is about six more weeks of stay at home. During that time we need more improvised hospitals, mass production of vents and protective equipment, crash training of additional medical staff, large scale coordinated trials of every proposed vaccine or treatment, public training on proper use of masks and gloves.

Then we open back up, with masks mandated in public.

The problem is the 'moon program' needed in the remaining shutdown needs a strong hand to do it, and we have a citrus fruit for a president.