Economist David McWilliams Podcast


Highly relevant to American based DUers

With the central bank cutting interest rates last week we thought it would be a good idea to analyze the current market signals and try to breakdown what might be looming in the future for the global economy

David McWilliams is an Irish Economist, who predicted the Economic Crash in Ireland (and worldwide) in 2008. Educated at Trinity College, Dublin and did his Masters at the College of Europe, alongside many of today's EU technocrats. He has a fantastic knack of explaining what's going on, in clear, simple and understandable terms to the general public. He is a Fellow of the Sanders Institute, and when asked by Sanders, McWilliams said "But I'm not a Socialist !"

This episode is an explanation of the origins of Brexit, and is seriously well worth a listen.

https://www.stitcher.com/s?eid=63176983&refid=asa

Ireland.

Lol.

US HOUSE SPEAKER Nancy Pelosi has repeated her warning that a US-UK trade deal wouldn’t pass through Congress if Brexit undermines the Good Friday Agreement. US National Security Advisor John Bolton said on Monday that the US government wanted “to move very quickly” on a trade deal with Britain after it leaves the EU, and that they were “first in line” for a future trade deal.These comments which were welcomed by Brexiteers, as the threat of a no-deal Brexit looms ahead on 31 October.“No longer at the back of the queue,” Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees Mogg tweeted, with a link to Bolton’s comments.

The UK currently trades with the US under the EU’s trade rules, which must be followed by all member states. One of the main arguments in favour of a hard Brexit is that it would leave the US free to negotiate new trade deals with other countries. If the UK’s post-Brexit rules diverge greatly from the EU’s, it compounds the problems on the island of Ireland – the more different the rules are, the more necessary a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland would be. Today, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, repeated comments that she made in April during a visit to Ireland where she stated that the Good Friday Agreement needed to be protected no matter the Brexit outcome, and said that it was “a value” that she and her colleagues would protect.

SNIP

Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, especially now, as the first generation born into the hope of Good Friday 21 years ago comes into adulthood. We cannot go back.

“If Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress. The peace of the Good Friday Agreement is treasured by the American people and will be fiercely defended on a bicameral and bipartisan basis in the United States Congress.”

This is a BIG DEAL. The UK will be desperate for a trade deal with the US, if Johnson pushes it to a No Deal Brexit. And if the UK renege on the €39bn that they owe the EU, they can go for a high jump if they want a trade deal with the EU, until that is paid. They're f****d imo.

Jonathan Powell was the UK’s chief negotiator in the Belfast Agreement talks, and he knows what he's talking about.



Subsequently, he did an interview with the Irish Times

Boris Johnson will “abandon” the DUP if he wins an election, to secure a Canada-style free trade agreement for Britain, the UK’s chief negotiator in the Belfast Agreement talks has predicted. Jonathan Powell said he believes the British prime minister is building an “English national party” and is in a strong position to win a snap general election which will mean he no longer needs DUP support. The Conservatives are in government in Westminster with a razor-thin majority through a confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionists’ 10 MPs.

Mr Powell, former chief of staff to ex-prime minister Tony Blair, told RTÉ’s Marian Finucane show that he believes Mr Johnson is pursuing a Canada-style free trade agreement with the European Union after leaving the bloc which will mean Britain being outside the Single Market and the Custom’s Union. “That means Northern Ireland would have to go back to the original backstop [guarantee against a hard border],” he said. “There would definitely have to be special measures for Northern Ireland in that case and there would definitely be a border down the Irish Sea.” Mr Johnson has only two options – for the EU to back down on his demand for the backstop to be scrapped, or to call a general election to shore up his own mandate, said Mr Powell.

SNIP

“He is turning the Tory party into an English national party. “They are not interested in Scotland, they are abandoning the Tory party in Scotland which has a very different position and they are focusing entirely on trying to win seats in England. If they get that, those are the interests they will protect.” Mr Powell, who helped to broker peace in the North, said Mr Johnson was pursuing a “clever strategy” and the DUP have a “problem politically”.

“The DUP has a relatively weak leadership under Arlene Foster,” he said. “It is at least two parties. It is the party in Westminster and the party in Northern Ireland – they have two rather different interests. “Someone like [DUP East Antrim MP and the party’s Brexit spokesman] Sammy Wilson likes hanging out in the bars with the ERG [European Research Group], the right wing of the Tory party, and they are very much signed up for Brexit,” he said. “Those who have to contest local Assembly elections in Northern Ireland.. their support is more dubious about the virtues of a no-deal or hard Brexit.

“I think the DUP have a problem politically and they are very unlikely to back down on anything that undermines the union, but if it gets past that, they are in a more complicated position.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/johnson-will-abandon-dup-for-free-trade-deal-jonathan-powell-predicts-1.3976861

We adopted a one year old JRT X two weeks ago and we love her. She's a rescue stray, so we don't know what happened to her before she got to us. Lucy is great fun, a character and really friendly to any human she has met.

Usually she goes on her back with all 4 legs in the air for a belly rub, which is fine, but in the last week she has started little nips on our hands. I'm not sure why she has started doing this, but I'd to try stop it now before it becomes worse.

Also, she's generally fine with other dogs but again, some dogs she'll go into a rage at and she's almost standing on her hind legs as we strain to hold onto her lead. There's no talking to her when she's like that.

When next doors cat was in our backyard, as he usually does, she went after him. He ran out via an old tree stump, and she'd have followed but it was just to high for her, thankfully. But still goes over to that spot as soon as she goes out the back.

She's fantastic but I'd appreciate any feedback to help us.

Ireland hostage....by David McWilliams

We'll worth a read of the full article.

Brexit saga has become a bizarre hostage situation: Boris Johnson is the kidnapper, the ransom is the backstop and Ireland is the hostage. Johnson is demanding the EU drop the backstop or he will shoot the hostage. We’ve been here before. Traditionally, the mantra has been: “We never negotiate with terrorists.” Let’s see what happens.

We all appreciate the notion that if we reward bad behaviour, a kidnapper will resort to intimidation again. The European Union has a choice to make. Ireland will survive this. It might well be convulsive but the economy is strong enough, just. And then what?

When you think about it, the “no-deal” option is only “no deal for now”. No deal is not a long-term option; ultimately, the United Kingdom will have to do a trade deal with the EU. The facts are pretty straightforward – 47 per cent of all UK exports go to the EU and, in turn, 52 per cent of all UK imports come from the EU. No matter how the hostage drama turns out, no matter what the political and economic fallout, the UK will be back at the table very soon. The more chaos at British ports, the shorter the self-imposed mercantile lockout.

Perhaps the EU should sit tight and play the long game? Once he shoots the hostage, all his negotiating power is gone – and the problem for the kidnapper is that he can only wound the hostage, not kill it. All that will remain is the much diminished UK with its economic reputation in tatters. The damage inflicted on its economy will be much worse than anything inflicted on us and, once the dust settles, investors will consider which location is more attractive – the one with open access to the EU or the one with trade barriers, tariffs and red tape that has locked itself out of a market with which it still does half its trade.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-boris-johnson-is-like-an-incompetent-kidnapper-taking-ireland-hostage-1.3974219?mode=amp#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s

I think she made a fundamental error in jumping in to mark Bernie, day one, by going for Medicare for All, and then has spent from then until now trying to backtrack. Sort it out, properly.

Right now, I think the 3 candidates who will be there at the end are Biden, Warren and, if she sorts herself out, Harris.

Cough cough, well done Joe (I feel bad having to say so).

Rev Al said "You have to wonder who is advising them" ????