Demovictory9
Demovictory9's JournalElection countdown clock..122 hours!!
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?p0=263&iso=20201103T00&msg=2020%20US%20Presidential%20ElectionTweet that will make Jared.cry "ouch"
https://twitter.com/donwinslow/status/1321567777107292160?s=19Trump laments that he has to run around begging for votes
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/trump-election-2020-insults/index.htmlPresident Donald Trump is ending his reelection bid in a frenzied cross-country push for votes in states he won -- some handily -- four years ago. But he is not pretending to be happy about it.
"It wasn't even going to be like we had an election," Trump said on a rain-drenched tarmac in Lansing, Michigan, on Tuesday, lamenting that the coronavirus had imperiled his political prospects and, in his telling, forced him to return to the cold grind and meteorological mishaps of the campaign trail.
"I probably wouldn't be standing out here in the freezing rain with you," he told a crowd of hearty souls who had been standing for hours in persistent drizzle to hear him speak. "I'd be home in the White House, doing whatever the hell I was doing. I wouldn't be out here."
As he barnstorms the country in seek of electoral votes, Trump is hoping to out-hustle his rival in the places he claims have been long ignored by the political class. But he has also been explicit that he would likely be ignoring them, too, unless they provided him political fuel.
Tweet of the hour
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1321286758148046852?s=19New voters surge to the polls. 16 million who hadnt voted in 2016 fueled by young and minorities
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/523199-new-voters-surge-to-the-pollsMore than 16 million voters who did not cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted this year, a sign that record-high enthusiasm in November’s elections will lead to an unprecedented turnout across the country.
There are indications that the surge is being fueled by younger voters who have been targets of turnout operations funded by Democratic groups, and by minorities who are motivated to vote like never before, data experts keeping tabs on the early numbers say.
Already this year, more than 4 million people between the ages of 18 and 29 have cast a ballot after sitting out 2016. They represent about two-thirds of all voters in that age bracket who have voted already. In states where voters can register by party, registered Democrats among those youngest voters outnumber registered Republicans by a nearly three to one margin.
“The central through thread from all of our conversations with young people throughout the year and the polls, whether ours or anyone else’s, [is that] they are more motivated to vote than ever before,” said Ben Wessel, executive director of NextGen America, a group funded by Tom Steyer that works to turn out younger voters.
In Florida, more than 335,000 voters between 18 and 29 who did not vote in 2016 have voted so far. Half of those voters are registered Democrats; about a quarter are registered Republicans
75,009,142 In-Person Votes: 25,565,668 Mail Ballots Returned: 49,443,474 Mail Ballots Outstand
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.htmlTrump tweet this morning
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321430459050381313?s=19new polling technique asks how person thinks their social circle will vote
Why your friends could help predict the election
In addition to asking how panelists will vote, the Daybreak poll does something more. It also asks panelists to predict how their friends, family, and colleagues will vote.
This is a new method in public opinion polling that has yielded promising results. During the 2016 U.S. and 2017 French elections, the technique came closer to predicting the popular vote than traditional surveys which only asked respondents about themselves.
One reason for this survey’s success has to do with sample size. By asking about a voter’s social circle, researchers implicitly gain information on a larger, more diverse group of people, according to Mirta Galesic and Henrik Olsson from the Santa Fe Institute.
Thus far, the Daybreak social survey predicts a slightly closer race than the overall poll, though Biden still holds the lead.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/usc-presidential-election-poll-2020/
Experts who study this method have also attributed its efficacy to the fact that respondents sometimes feel more comfortable speaking truthfully about others than they do about their own private opinions.
The "Shy Voter" theory holds that some Trump supporters might fear harassment or feel embarrassed about publicly declaring their voting intentions.
This survey method also reveals how many American social circles have sorted into opposing political camps. Democrats and Republicans alike predict their social circles will vote for each party’s nominee. "Perhaps more surprising," wrote Galesic and Olsson, "is that both Democrats and Republicans seem to know that they are surrounded by like-minded people."
Trailing in the polls, Trump is saying whatever he thinks might help him win reelection
Trailing in the polls, Trump is saying whatever he thinks might help him win reelection
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So it’s pretty rich that Trump now claims that the media coverage about the worsening coronavirus outbreak in the United States is actually a “Fake News Media Conspiracy” — a.k.a. a hoax — and “the topic will totally change” after the election.
Not that it needs to be said, but the record-breaking number of new cases, with a current seven-day daily average of nearly 70,000, is not a fabrication. Nor is it, as Trump tweeted Monday, because “we TEST, TEST, TEST.” Public health officials say the rate of positive tests and hospitalizations are both increasing in many states.
But since he’s trailing in the polls to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Trump is saying whatever he thinks might help him get reelected. That apparently includes minimizing a deadly virus that’s already killed more than 226,000 Americans and could claim another 200,000 lives before an effective vaccine is widely available.
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If this seems like an odd strategy in the waning days of a campaign that has become a referendum on the Trump administration’s handling of the virus, it is. Instead of downplaying the pandemic, why not — I’m just spitballing here — try to reassure people who, like me, alternate between worried and panic-stricken. A little leadership would go a long way.
Then again, there’s little about the last days of Trump’s reelection campaign that feels rational. I mean, the guy who was hospitalized with COVID-19 is telling us it’s no big deal. And what about that bizarre campaign event he held at the White House on Monday night with newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. What was that? How many of the 12 million unemployed Americans struggling to pay their rent or mortgage watched that and thought: “Never mind another stimulus check, thank goodness we have a ninth justice.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/10/27/nation/trailing-polls-trump-is-saying-whatever-he-thinks-might-help-him-win-reelection/
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